The model's pre-kickoff call was Norway win at 46.3%, and it gave the actual result (Norway win) 46.3%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Norway | Draw | Senegal | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.46 (best price) | 3.55 (best price) | 3.25 (best price) | 2.00 (best price) | 1.99 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.48 | 3.21 | 1.94 | 1.92 |
| 888sport | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 2.35 | 3.35 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.35 | 3.50 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.46 (best price) | 3.50 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.46 (best price) | 3.50 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.20 | 2.80 | 2.88 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.36 | 3.44 | 3.17 | 1.94 | 1.91 |
| Betsson | 2.25 | 3.55 (best price) | 3.25 (best price) | 1.92 | 1.90 |
| Betway | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.32 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.33 | 3.40 | 3.05 | 1.84 | 1.83 |
| Coolbet | 2.38 | 3.45 | 3.23 | 1.95 | 1.91 |
| Coral | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Everygame | 2.35 | 3.35 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.05 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| GTbets | 2.30 | 3.46 | 3.10 | 1.89 | 1.88 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.10 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 2.32 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.32 | 3.35 | 3.10 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.28 | 3.25 | 3.05 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 2.46 (best price) | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.00 (best price) | 1.99 (best price) |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.26 | 3.36 | 3.12 | 1.91 | 1.90 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.35 | 3.45 | 3.15 | 1.92 | 1.90 |
| Paddy Power | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 2.39 | 3.46 | 3.17 | 1.97 | 1.93 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.38 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Sky Bet | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 2.46 (best price) | 3.50 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Tipico | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.35 | 3.50 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.38 | 3.45 | 3.20 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.38 | 3.45 | 3.20 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.38 | 3.40 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 2.28 | 3.25 | 3.05 | — | — |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.05 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Senegal are the stronger side and the model backs them — clear value on the away win in a close game.
Group I, matchday 2 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. With France expected to top the group, this is a heavyweight battle for the runner-up spot between two well-matched sides.
Norway (Elo 1724) are the home side with a Haaland-led attack and a 2.08 price, but the model rates them 52 Elo points below Senegal. The model gives them just 27% to win.
Senegal (Elo 1776) are the higher-rated side — physical, athletic, and deep — and the model makes them the favourite at 47%. The 3.40 away price leaves a clear edge.
Model view. Senegal 27% / 26% / 47% (home/draw/away), xG 1.06–1.49, BTTS 51%, Under 2.5 53%. Senegal-leaning.
Model vs market. The data flags Senegal as the edge: 3.40 implies 29% but the model gives 47% — a 17.5% edge. The market is over-weighting Norway’s home tag and Haaland’s name.
- Senegal ML at 3.40 — model 47%, fair ~2.13; the headline value
- Senegal +0.5 / draw-no-bet — combined Senegal win + draw = 73%, strong vs the implied price
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 51%, two willing attacks
Avoid: Norway -0.5 at the short price (only 27% to win), backing Norway heavily on Haaland’s name alone.
The model makes Senegal the away favourite and flags them at 3.40 as clear value over a Haaland-anchored Norway. This is a name/home-bias fade — confirm Senegal’s spine is fit before backing it.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — this likely shapes the runner-up race behind France
- Norway's Haaland-led attack and whether it's clicking
- Senegal's physical, athletic spine
- East Rutherford conditions and any rotation
Team news
Norway · SenegalNo recent news mentioning Norway or Senegal.