Model vs market
our call = 43% model + 57% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Norway | Draw | Senegal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 56.6% | 25.6% | 17.8% |
| Market (de-vig) | 45.9% | 26.8% | 27.3% |
| Our call | 50.5% | 26.3% | 23.2% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Norway's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Norway | Push | Senegal |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32.3% | — | 67.7% |
| -1 | 32.3% | 24.3% | 43.4% |
| -0.5 | 56.6% | — | 43.4% |
| 0 | 56.6% | 25.6% | 17.8% |
| +0.5 | 82.2% | — | 17.8% |
| +1 | 82.2% | 11.8% | 6.0% |
| +1.5 | 94.0% | — | 6.0% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| 2.5 | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 3.5 | 26.3% | 73.7% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Norway or Draw | 82.2% |
| Draw or Senegal | 43.4% |
| Norway or Senegal (no draw) | 74.4% |
| DNB — Norway | 76.0% |
| DNB — Senegal | 23.9% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.2% |
| 1–0 | 11.9% |
| 2–0 | 11.1% |
| 2–1 | 9.7% |
| 0–0 | 8.5% |
| 3–0 | 6.4% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 29 books · as ofAll 29 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Norway | Draw | Senegal | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.18 (best price) | 3.66 (best price) | 3.55 (best price) | 1.97 (best price) | 1.85 (best price) |
| 888sport | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.02 | 3.33 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.55 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.55 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.50 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.12 | 3.66 (best price) | 3.45 | 1.97 (best price) | 1.85 (best price) |
| BoyleSports | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.14 | 3.45 | 3.40 | 1.88 | 1.81 |
| Coral | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Everygame | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 2.12 | 3.40 | 3.35 | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| GTbets | 2.04 | 3.46 | 3.51 | 1.97 (best price) | 1.81 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.40 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 2.14 | 3.45 | 3.40 | 1.88 | 1.81 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.14 | 3.45 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 2.07 | 3.40 | 3.40 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.05 | 3.34 | 3.42 | 1.91 | 1.79 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 2.08 | 3.50 | 3.33 | 1.94 | 1.85 (best price) |
| PMU (FR) | 2.14 | 3.45 | 3.40 | 1.82 | 1.74 |
| Sky Bet | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 2.18 (best price) | 3.60 | 3.55 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.45 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.17 | 3.50 | 3.45 | 1.88 | 1.81 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.45 | 1.88 | 1.81 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.40 | — | — |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.96 | 3.25 | 3.15 | — | — |
Analysis
Senegal are the stronger side and the model backs them — clear value on the away win in a close game.
Group I, matchday 2 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. With France expected to top the group, this is a heavyweight battle for the runner-up spot between two well-matched sides.
Norway (Elo 1724) are the home side with a Haaland-led attack and a 2.08 price, but the model rates them 52 Elo points below Senegal. The model gives them just 27% to win.
Senegal (Elo 1776) are the higher-rated side — physical, athletic, and deep — and the model makes them the favourite at 47%. The 3.40 away price leaves a clear edge.
Model view. Senegal 27% / 26% / 47% (home/draw/away), xG 1.06–1.49, BTTS 51%, Under 2.5 53%. Senegal-leaning.
Betting angle. The data flags Senegal as the edge: 3.40 implies 29% but the model gives 47% — a 17.5% edge. The market is over-weighting Norway’s home tag and Haaland’s name.
- Senegal ML at 3.40 — model 47%, fair ~2.13; the headline value
- Senegal +0.5 / draw-no-bet — combined Senegal win + draw = 73%, strong vs the implied price
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 51%, two willing attacks
Avoid: Norway -0.5 at the short price (only 27% to win), backing Norway heavily on Haaland’s name alone.
The model makes Senegal the away favourite and flags them at 3.40 as clear value over a Haaland-anchored Norway. This is a name/home-bias fade — confirm Senegal’s spine is fit before backing it.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — this likely shapes the runner-up race behind France
- Norway's Haaland-led attack and whether it's clicking
- Senegal's physical, athletic spine
- East Rutherford conditions and any rotation
Team news
Norway · SenegalBets on this match
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