Model vs market
our call = 38% model + 62% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Norway | Draw | France |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 28.4% | 29.5% | 42.1% |
| Market (de-vig) | 20.6% | 24.2% | 55.2% |
| Our call | 23.5% | 26.2% | 50.3% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Norway's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Norway | Push | France |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.3% | — | 88.7% |
| -1 | 11.3% | 17.1% | 71.5% |
| -0.5 | 28.4% | — | 71.5% |
| 0 | 28.4% | 29.5% | 42.1% |
| +0.5 | 57.9% | — | 42.1% |
| +1 | 57.9% | 21.9% | 20.1% |
| +1.5 | 79.9% | — | 20.1% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| 2.5 | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| 3.5 | 22.4% | 77.6% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Norway or Draw | 57.9% |
| Draw or France | 71.5% |
| Norway or France (no draw) | 70.5% |
| DNB — Norway | 40.4% |
| DNB — France | 59.7% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.0% |
| 0–1 | 11.0% |
| 0–0 | 10.1% |
| 1–2 | 8.7% |
| 1–0 | 8.4% |
| 0–2 | 8.1% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 31 books · as ofAll 31 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Norway | Draw | France | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 4.70 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) | 1.83 (best price) | 1.81 (best price) | 2.10 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 4.57 | 4.02 | 1.83 (best price) | 1.79 | 2.10 (best price) |
| 888sport | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 4.33 | 3.80 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Betfair | 4.70 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) | 1.80 | — | — |
| Betfair | 4.70 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) | 1.80 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 4.33 | 3.75 | 1.73 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.52 | 3.90 | 1.79 | 1.81 (best price) | 2.07 |
| Betway | 3.80 | 3.80 | 1.77 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Casumo | 4.70 (best price) | 3.85 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 2.02 |
| Coolbet | 4.50 | 3.85 | 1.82 | 1.78 | 2.05 |
| Coral | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Everygame | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.73 | 1.76 | 2.02 |
| GTbets | 4.39 | 3.86 | 1.78 | 1.79 | 2.07 |
| Ladbrokes | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.80 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 4.70 (best price) | 3.85 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 2.02 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.70 (best price) | 3.85 | 1.76 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.72 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 4.70 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) | 1.80 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 4.45 | 3.85 | 1.82 | 1.75 | 2.10 (best price) |
| Paddy Power | 4.40 | 3.80 | 1.73 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 4.14 | 3.80 | 1.77 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.97 |
| Sky Bet | 4.33 | 3.80 | 1.73 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Tipico | 4.40 | 3.90 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.70 (best price) | 3.85 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 2.02 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.70 (best price) | 3.85 | 1.76 | 1.79 | 2.06 |
| Virgin Bet | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.72 | — | — |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Analysis
France are favoured in the Group I finale and the line is fair — no ML edge, so work the derivatives.
Group I, matchday 3 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Two of the group’s strongest sides meet in a fixture that could settle top spot, with France the class side but Norway dangerous through Haaland.
Norway (Elo 1724) are the home side with a genuine match-winner up top, but rated 73 Elo points below France. The model gives them 24% to win; a Haaland moment is their clearest path to an upset.
France (Elo 1797) are the highest-rated side in the group and favoured at 1.79. The xG line of 1.57–0.98 leans their way, and the model gives them 51% to win — close to the price’s implied ~56%.
Model view. France 24% / 25% / 51% (home/draw/away), xG 0.98–1.57, BTTS 49%, Under 2.5 53%. France-leaning but competitive.
Model vs market. No edge flagged — the market sits right on the model. This is an efficient line, so the value is in the derivatives rather than the headline.
- Under 2.5 at 1.79 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; roughly fair and live in a cagey decider
- Draw at 3.55 — model 25%, fair ~4.00, the value pocket if both play cautiously
- France -0.5 AH = the straight win, 51%, fair ~1.96
Avoid: France -1.5 chasing a margin (well under coin-flip), Norway ML at a short price on Haaland’s name, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
France are correctly favoured and the line is fair — there’s no ML edge, so lean the draw and the under. If France are already through and rotate, the draw price becomes the play; check the lineup.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group I standings — this could decide the group winner
- Whether France are already through and may rotate
- Norway's Haaland-led attack against a strong French defence
- Foxborough conditions and France's lineup intentions