Model vs market
our call = 34% model + 66% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Senegal | Draw | Iraq |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 60.2% | 24.2% | 15.5% |
| Market (de-vig) | 75.3% | 16.6% | 8.2% |
| Our call | 70.2% | 19.2% | 10.6% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Senegal's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Senegal | Push | Iraq |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35.8% | — | 64.2% |
| -1 | 35.8% | 24.4% | 39.8% |
| -0.5 | 60.2% | — | 39.8% |
| 0 | 60.2% | 24.2% | 15.5% |
| +0.5 | 84.5% | — | 15.5% |
| +1 | 84.5% | 10.5% | 5.0% |
| +1.5 | 95.0% | — | 5.0% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| 2.5 | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| 3.5 | 27.7% | 72.3% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Senegal or Draw | 84.5% |
| Draw or Iraq | 39.8% |
| Senegal or Iraq (no draw) | 75.8% |
| DNB — Senegal | 79.5% |
| DNB — Iraq | 20.5% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–0 | 11.9% |
| 2–0 | 11.8% |
| 1–1 | 11.5% |
| 2–1 | 9.7% |
| 0–0 | 7.9% |
| 3–0 | 7.2% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Senegal | Draw | Iraq | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.33 (best price) | 5.90 (best price) | 12.50 (best price) | 1.90 (best price) | 2.10 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.33 (best price) | 5.52 | 12.10 | 1.87 | 2.00 |
| 888sport | 1.29 | 4.80 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.29 | 5.00 | 11.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.32 | 5.90 (best price) | 12.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.32 | 5.90 (best price) | 12.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.33 (best price) | 5.00 | 10.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.31 | 5.70 | 10.25 | 1.88 | 1.98 |
| Betway | 1.25 | 5.25 | 10.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.30 | 4.75 | 11.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.32 | 5.40 | 10.00 | 1.80 | 1.96 |
| Coolbet | 1.33 (best price) | 5.25 | 11.00 | 1.82 | 2.00 |
| Coral | 1.30 | 5.25 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.28 | 5.50 | 11.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.30 | 5.20 | 9.50 | 1.80 | 1.96 |
| GTbets | 1.30 | 5.04 | 11.03 | 1.85 | 1.93 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.30 | 5.25 | 9.50 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.32 | 5.40 | 10.00 | 1.80 | 1.96 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.32 | 5.40 | 10.00 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.30 | 5.10 | 9.50 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.32 | 5.90 (best price) | 12.50 (best price) | 1.90 (best price) | 2.10 (best price) |
| Paddy Power | 1.25 | 5.00 | 11.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.26 | 5.36 | 10.35 | 1.81 | 1.99 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.30 | 5.10 | 9.50 | 1.76 | 1.93 |
| Sky Bet | 1.29 | 5.25 | 10.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.32 | 5.70 | 12.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.25 | 5.80 | 12.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.32 | 5.40 | 10.00 | 1.80 | 1.96 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.32 | 5.40 | 10.00 | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.30 | 5.10 | 9.50 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 10.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
Analysis
Senegal are clear favourites in the Group I finale — efficiently priced, with the under as the lean.
Group I, matchday 3 at BMO Field in Toronto. Senegal are strong favourites against the group’s lowest-rated side; the question is the margin and whether they need the win.
Senegal (Elo 1776) are the higher-rated side by 125 Elo points — physical, athletic, and deep. The xG line of 1.77 in their favour and a 61% win probability reflect control.
Iraq (Elo 1651) are organised and capable of sitting deep. The model gives them 16% to win; a low-scoring, set-piece-decided game is their best route to anything.
Model view. Senegal 61% / 23% / 16%, xG 1.77–0.78, BTTS 45%, Under 2.5 53%. Senegal firmly favoured.
Model vs market. No edge flagged — the market (Senegal ~1.42) sits on the model. This is an efficient line, so look to the under rather than the headline.
- Under 2.5 at 1.88 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; roughly fair and supported if Iraq sit deep
- Senegal -0.5 AH = the straight win, 61%, fair ~1.64
- BTTS no ~1.85 — model 55% no, Iraq may be shut out
Avoid: Iraq ML (16%), Senegal -1.5 chasing a margin against a low block, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Senegal are correctly favoured and the line is fair — the lean is the under against an Iraqi block. Watch for rotation if Senegal are already through; a rested XI strengthens the under.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group I standings — Senegal's qualification scenario and rotation risk
- Iraq's defensive block and how deep they sit
- Senegal's physical, athletic spine and whether key men start
- Toronto turf surface for the goal-total read
Team news
Senegal · IraqNo recent news mentioning Senegal or Iraq.