Model vs market
our call = 42% model + 58% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Senegal | Draw | Iraq |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 57.0% | 25.4% | 17.7% |
| Market (de-vig) | 68.1% | 20.1% | 11.8% |
| Our call | 63.4% | 22.3% | 14.3% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Senegal's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Senegal | Push | Iraq |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32.7% | — | 67.3% |
| -1 | 32.7% | 24.2% | 43.0% |
| -0.5 | 57.0% | — | 43.0% |
| 0 | 57.0% | 25.4% | 17.7% |
| +0.5 | 82.3% | — | 17.7% |
| +1 | 82.3% | 11.7% | 6.0% |
| +1.5 | 94.0% | — | 6.0% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| 2.5 | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 3.5 | 26.8% | 73.2% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Senegal or Draw | 82.3% |
| Draw or Iraq | 43.0% |
| Senegal or Iraq (no draw) | 74.6% |
| DNB — Senegal | 76.3% |
| DNB — Iraq | 23.7% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.1% |
| 1–0 | 11.7% |
| 2–0 | 11.1% |
| 2–1 | 9.7% |
| 0–0 | 8.3% |
| 3–0 | 6.4% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 27 books · as ofAll 27 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Senegal | Draw | Iraq | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.53 (best price) | 4.60 (best price) | 7.50 (best price) | 1.91 (best price) | 1.91 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.42 | 4.25 | 6.60 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.44 | 4.20 | 7.50 (best price) | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.48 | 4.45 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.91 (best price) | 1.91 (best price) |
| BoyleSports | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.83 | 1.88 |
| Coral | 1.48 | 4.33 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.44 | 4.60 (best price) | 7.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.83 | 1.89 |
| GTbets | 1.53 (best price) | 4.31 | 6.94 | 1.91 (best price) | 1.87 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.48 | 4.20 | 6.50 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.83 | 1.88 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 (best price) | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.42 | 4.30 | 7.40 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.44 | 4.30 | 6.70 | 1.86 | 1.84 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40 | 4.33 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.42 | 4.38 | 7.07 | 1.88 | 1.90 |
| Sky Bet | 1.44 | 4.20 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.43 | 3.75 | 6.80 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.83 | 1.88 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.83 | 1.88 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.45 | 4.25 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 (best price) | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.38 | 4.00 | 5.80 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.35 | 3.80 | 5.40 | — | — |
Analysis
Senegal are clear favourites in the Group I finale — efficiently priced, with the under as the lean.
Group I, matchday 3 at BMO Field in Toronto. Senegal are strong favourites against the group’s lowest-rated side; the question is the margin and whether they need the win.
Senegal (Elo 1776) are the higher-rated side by 125 Elo points — physical, athletic, and deep. The xG line of 1.77 in their favour and a 61% win probability reflect control.
Iraq (Elo 1651) are organised and capable of sitting deep. The model gives them 16% to win; a low-scoring, set-piece-decided game is their best route to anything.
Model view. Senegal 61% / 23% / 16%, xG 1.77–0.78, BTTS 45%, Under 2.5 53%. Senegal firmly favoured.
Betting angle. No edge flagged — the market (Senegal ~1.42) sits on the model. This is an efficient line, so look to the under rather than the headline.
- Under 2.5 at 1.88 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; roughly fair and supported if Iraq sit deep
- Senegal -0.5 AH = the straight win, 61%, fair ~1.64
- BTTS no ~1.85 — model 55% no, Iraq may be shut out
Avoid: Iraq ML (16%), Senegal -1.5 chasing a margin against a low block, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Senegal are correctly favoured and the line is fair — the lean is the under against an Iraqi block. Watch for rotation if Senegal are already through; a rested XI strengthens the under.
Verify before betting
- Group I standings — Senegal's qualification scenario and rotation risk
- Iraq's defensive block and how deep they sit
- Senegal's physical, athletic spine and whether key men start
- Toronto turf surface for the goal-total read
Team news
Senegal · IraqBets on this match
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