The model's pre-kickoff call was Argentina win at 65.4%, and it gave the actual result (Argentina win) 65.4%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Argentina | Draw | Algeria | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.47 (best price) | 4.70 (best price) | 9.00 (best price) | 2.00 (best price) | 1.92 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.47 (best price) | 4.64 | 8.45 | 1.95 | 1.92 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.00 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.40 | 4.40 | 8.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.42 | 4.40 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.43 | 4.70 (best price) | 8.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.47 (best price) | 4.70 (best price) | 8.80 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.47 (best price) | 4.70 (best price) | 8.80 | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.36 | 3.75 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.44 | 4.33 | 8.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.43 | 4.65 | 8.40 | 2.00 (best price) | 1.86 |
| Betsson | 1.44 | 4.40 | 8.50 | 1.95 | 1.88 |
| Betway | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.43 | 4.35 | 8.00 | 1.87 | 1.88 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.44 | 4.50 | 7.60 | 1.86 | 1.81 |
| Coolbet | 1.45 | 4.65 | 8.55 | 1.98 | 1.89 |
| Coral | 1.44 | 4.60 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.44 | 4.40 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.42 | 4.35 | 8.00 | 1.87 | 1.88 |
| GTbets | 1.43 | 4.46 | 7.56 | 1.93 | 1.84 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.44 | 4.60 | 7.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.43 | 4.35 | 8.00 | 1.87 | 1.88 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.43 | 4.35 | 8.00 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.41 | 4.25 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.47 (best price) | 4.70 (best price) | 8.60 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.45 | 4.30 | 7.30 | 1.93 | 1.88 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.44 | 4.40 | 8.50 | 1.95 | 1.88 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40 | 4.33 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 4.60 | 8.60 | 1.99 | 1.92 (best price) |
| PMU (FR) | 1.45 | 4.40 | 8.00 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
| Sky Bet | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.46 | 4.70 (best price) | 9.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.40 | 4.50 | 8.50 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.43 | 4.70 (best price) | 8.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.45 | 4.60 | 8.50 | 1.87 | 1.88 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.45 | 4.60 | 8.50 | 1.91 | 1.92 (best price) |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.45 | 4.50 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.41 | 4.25 | 8.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.50 | 1.91 | 1.83 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.44 | 4.50 | 7.75 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.43 | 4.40 | 7.50 | — | — |
Analysis
Argentina's title defence opens. The model has Algeria much closer than the market will.
Group J opens at Arrowhead. Argentina are reigning World Cup champions, AFCON-equivalent champions (Copa América 2021, 2024), and the model’s defending-champion-as-favourite play of the tournament. Late kickoff in Kansas City.
Argentina are entering the cycle’s final tournament with their 2022-winning generation aging out simultaneously. Messi is 38. Di María has retired. The Mac Allister/Fernández/De Paul midfield is intact but the front line is now Álvarez-led with new wingers in rotation. Elo (1849) reflects a side that has won pretty much everything since 2021 — almost certainly correctly rated, possibly slightly inflated by the post-2022 unbeaten run.
Algeria are the dark-horse contender of CAF qualification. The squad has reorganised around the Mahrez-Bennacer axis with Slimani’s heir at the front, the federation has stabilised, and the qualification path was clean. Elo (1795) is the highest Algeria has ever rated — and is the third-highest African nation in the field after Morocco and Senegal.
Model view. Argentina 47% / 26% / 27%, xG 1.49–1.06, BTTS 51%. Tighter than you’d intuitively expect for a defending champion vs. a Pot 3 African side.
Model vs market. The market will price Argentina at 1.50–1.65 ML. The model says fair price is ~2.13. That’s a meaningful disagreement; either the market is wrong, the model is wrong, or both have a piece of it.
My honest read: Argentina’s true win probability is somewhere around 55–60%, between the model’s 47% and the public’s 65%+. That makes:
- Algeria ML at 5.50+ — model 27%, fair ~3.70, market will sit at 6.00+ which is some edge if you size it small
- Draw at 3.40+ — model 26%, fair ~3.85, common +EV on champion-defending matches
- Algeria +0.5 AH at 2.30+ — combined draw + Algeria win = 53%, fair ~1.89, real edge if available
Avoid: Argentina -1.5 AH (only ~30% probability), Messi anytime goal at the short prices.
This is a soft +EV match on draw and Algeria longshots. The model and the market disagree by a lot; the truth is probably in between, which means draw markets are particularly good value.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Messi's role — is he still starting all matches at 38?
- Argentina's central-midfield rotation post-Mac Allister/Fernández
- Algeria's Mahrez/Bennacer fitness
- Kansas City weather — late June can be brutal humidity
- Argentina's friendlies form — they have rotated heavily, careful what you read into it