Model vs market
our call = 52% model + 48% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Argentina | Draw | Algeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 63.4% | 23.1% | 13.5% |
| Market (de-vig) | 69.9% | 19.9% | 10.3% |
| Our call | 66.5% | 21.6% | 11.9% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Argentina's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Argentina | Push | Algeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38.9% | — | 61.1% |
| -1 | 38.9% | 24.6% | 36.6% |
| -0.5 | 63.4% | — | 36.6% |
| 0 | 63.4% | 23.1% | 13.5% |
| +0.5 | 86.5% | — | 13.5% |
| +1 | 86.5% | 9.4% | 4.1% |
| +1.5 | 95.9% | — | 4.1% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 2.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 3.5 | 28.0% | 72.0% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Argentina or Draw | 86.5% |
| Draw or Algeria | 36.6% |
| Argentina or Algeria (no draw) | 76.9% |
| DNB — Argentina | 82.5% |
| DNB — Algeria | 17.5% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 12.5% |
| 1–0 | 12.3% |
| 1–1 | 11.0% |
| 2–1 | 9.6% |
| 3–0 | 8.0% |
| 0–0 | 7.8% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 36 books · as ofAll 36 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Argentina | Draw | Algeria | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.43 (best price) | 4.90 (best price) | 10.00 (best price) | 1.96 (best price) | 1.98 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 4.60 | 9.30 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.00 | 8.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.39 | 4.50 | 8.75 | 1.93 | 1.89 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.36 | 4.55 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.42 | 4.90 (best price) | 10.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.42 | 4.90 (best price) | 10.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.36 | 4.50 | 9.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.40 | 4.80 | 8.75 | 1.89 | 1.93 |
| Betsson | 1.42 | 4.45 | 9.10 | 1.92 | 1.90 |
| Betway | 1.38 | 4.50 | 8.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.36 | 4.33 | 8.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.38 | 4.75 | 8.50 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.40 | 4.70 | 8.20 | 1.85 | 1.82 |
| Coolbet | 1.40 | 4.75 | 9.50 | 1.94 | 1.98 (best price) |
| Coral | 1.40 | 4.50 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.40 | 4.50 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.36 | 4.60 | 8.50 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
| GTbets | 1.43 (best price) | 4.46 | 8.46 | 1.87 | 1.90 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.40 | 4.50 | 8.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.38 | 4.75 | 8.50 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.38 | 4.75 | 8.50 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.41 | 4.60 | 9.50 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.38 | 4.50 | 7.80 | 1.86 | 1.84 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.42 | 4.45 | 9.10 | 1.92 | 1.90 |
| Paddy Power | 1.36 | 4.50 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.40 | 4.61 | 9.23 | 1.96 (best price) | 1.93 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.38 | 4.75 | 8.50 | 1.73 | 1.83 |
| Sky Bet | 1.36 | 4.50 | 8.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.42 | 4.90 (best price) | 10.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.38 | 4.70 | 8.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.40 | 4.90 (best price) | 9.00 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.38 | 4.80 | 9.00 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.37 | 4.50 | 8.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.00 | 8.00 | 1.83 | 1.91 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.39 | 4.60 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.38 | 4.50 | 7.25 | — | — |
Analysis
Argentina's title defence opens. The model has Algeria much closer than the market will.
Group J opens at Arrowhead. Argentina are reigning World Cup champions, AFCON-equivalent champions (Copa América 2021, 2024), and the model’s defending-champion-as-favourite play of the tournament. Late kickoff in Kansas City.
Argentina are entering the cycle’s final tournament with their 2022-winning generation aging out simultaneously. Messi is 38. Di María has retired. The Mac Allister/Fernández/De Paul midfield is intact but the front line is now Álvarez-led with new wingers in rotation. Elo (1849) reflects a side that has won pretty much everything since 2021 — almost certainly correctly rated, possibly slightly inflated by the post-2022 unbeaten run.
Algeria are the dark-horse contender of CAF qualification. The squad has reorganised around the Mahrez-Bennacer axis with Slimani’s heir at the front, the federation has stabilised, and the qualification path was clean. Elo (1795) is the highest Algeria has ever rated — and is the third-highest African nation in the field after Morocco and Senegal.
Model view. Argentina 47% / 26% / 27%, xG 1.49–1.06, BTTS 51%. Tighter than you’d intuitively expect for a defending champion vs. a Pot 3 African side.
Betting angle. The market will price Argentina at 1.50–1.65 ML. The model says fair price is ~2.13. That’s a meaningful disagreement; either the market is wrong, the model is wrong, or both have a piece of it.
My honest read: Argentina’s true win probability is somewhere around 55–60%, between the model’s 47% and the public’s 65%+. That makes:
- Algeria ML at 5.50+ — model 27%, fair ~3.70, market will sit at 6.00+ which is some edge if you size it small
- Draw at 3.40+ — model 26%, fair ~3.85, common +EV on champion-defending matches
- Algeria +0.5 AH at 2.30+ — combined draw + Algeria win = 53%, fair ~1.89, real edge if available
Avoid: Argentina -1.5 AH (only ~30% probability), Messi anytime goal at the short prices.
This is a soft +EV match on draw and Algeria longshots. The model and the market disagree by a lot; the truth is probably in between, which means draw markets are particularly good value.
Verify before betting
- Messi's role — is he still starting all matches at 38?
- Argentina's central-midfield rotation post-Mac Allister/Fernández
- Algeria's Mahrez/Bennacer fitness
- Kansas City weather — late June can be brutal humidity
- Argentina's friendlies form — they have rotated heavily, careful what you read into it
Team news
Argentina · AlgeriaBets on this match
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