The model's pre-kickoff call was Austria win at 67.5%, and it gave the actual result (Austria win) 67.5%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 31 books · as ofAll 31 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Austria | Draw | Jordan | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.30 (best price) | 2.36 (best price) | 8.20 (best price) | 1.59 (best price) | 2.68 (best price) |
| 888sport | 2.20 | 2.05 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 2.10 | 1.95 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.94 | 2.18 | 7.25 | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.18 | 2.36 (best price) | 8.20 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.24 | 2.30 | 8.20 (best price) | — | — |
| Betsson | 2.10 | 2.15 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Betway | 2.10 | 2.15 | 6.50 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 2.15 | 2.10 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.05 | 2.20 | 8.00 | 1.48 | 2.60 |
| Coolbet | 2.25 | 2.20 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 2.05 | 2.20 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.97 | 2.14 | 7.50 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.05 | 2.20 | 7.50 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.93 | 2.10 | 7.50 | 1.43 | 2.50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.93 | 2.10 | 7.00 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.98 | 2.12 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 2.30 (best price) | 2.26 | 8.00 | 1.59 (best price) | 2.68 (best price) |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.95 | 2.20 | 6.25 | 1.45 | 2.30 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.10 | 2.15 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 2.15 | 2.05 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | 2.16 | 7.26 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 2.05 | 2.20 | 8.00 | 1.43 | 2.50 |
| Sky Bet | 2.15 | 2.10 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 2.20 | 2.26 | 7.60 | — | — |
| Tipico | 2.10 | 2.10 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.05 | 2.20 | 8.00 | 1.48 | 2.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.05 | 2.20 | 8.00 | 1.48 | 2.60 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.10 | 2.15 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.98 | 2.12 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.15 | 2.10 | 6.75 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.05 | 2.10 | 6.50 | — | — |
Analysis
Austria are favoured but only just. The model and the market may align cleanly here.
Group J’s other Day 6 opener at Levi’s Stadium. Late kickoff. Neutral venue.
Austria had a strong Euro 2024 run before falling in the round of 16. The cycle has been built around an intense, high-pressing 4-2-3-1 with Arnautović as the focal point and Sabitzer/Laimer doing the legwork. Elo (1701) reflects a side that has steadily improved over the cycle but still has the talent ceiling of an honest top-25 nation.
Jordan are at their first World Cup. The squad qualified through the Asian playoffs with a couple of strong performances and a manageable draw. Style is a deep mid-block, occasional transitions through the front three, set-piece focus. Elo (1656) reflects a side that has improved a lot in the cycle but is still untested against tier-1 European opposition.
Model view. Austria 45% / 26% / 29%, xG 1.45–1.10, BTTS 51%. Close to the kind of true pick’em with mild favourite that the model is best calibrated on.
Model vs market. This is a small-edges match. The market will be reasonably efficient.
- Draw at 3.30+ — model 26%, fair ~3.85
- BTTS-Yes at 2.00+ — model 51%, fair ~1.96
- Jordan +0.5 AH at 1.70+ — combined Jordan-win + draw = 55%, fair ~1.82
Avoid: Austria -1.5 AH (only ~24%), either ML at the short side.
Sit-this-one-out is a perfectly defensible position. The model is roughly fair, the market will roughly agree, and the edges are small. Lean in only if you’re picking a specific market mispricing, not because you have a view on the outcome.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Austria XI — Arnautović as anchor or rotation piece
- Jordan's manager and tactical identity
- Santa Clara evening kickoff; weather usually fine
- Austria missed Euro 2024 group stage exit — is the cycle still on track?