Model vs market
our call = 25% model + 75% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Austria | Draw | Jordan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 54.5% | 26.2% | 19.3% |
| Market (de-vig) | 74.9% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
| Our call | 69.9% | 18.6% | 11.5% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Austria's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Austria | Push | Jordan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30.4% | — | 69.6% |
| -1 | 30.4% | 24.0% | 45.5% |
| -0.5 | 54.5% | — | 45.5% |
| 0 | 54.5% | 26.2% | 19.3% |
| +0.5 | 80.7% | — | 19.3% |
| +1 | 80.7% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
| +1.5 | 93.3% | — | 6.7% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| 2.5 | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| 3.5 | 26.1% | 73.9% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Austria or Draw | 80.7% |
| Draw or Jordan | 45.5% |
| Austria or Jordan (no draw) | 73.8% |
| DNB — Austria | 73.8% |
| DNB — Jordan | 26.2% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.5% |
| 1–0 | 11.6% |
| 2–0 | 10.6% |
| 2–1 | 9.6% |
| 0–0 | 8.6% |
| 3–0 | 5.9% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 36 books · as ofAll 36 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Austria | Draw | Jordan | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.35 (best price) | 5.90 (best price) | 10.50 (best price) | 1.65 (best price) | 2.35 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.34 | 5.50 | 9.90 | 1.65 (best price) | 2.27 |
| 888sport | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.32 | 5.45 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.28 | 5.40 | 8.75 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.35 (best price) | 5.90 (best price) | 10.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.35 (best price) | 5.90 (best price) | 10.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.33 | 5.00 | 9.50 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.33 | 5.64 | 9.50 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.35 (best price) | 5.20 | 9.90 | 1.65 (best price) | 2.28 |
| Betway | 1.30 | 5.25 | 8.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.30 | 5.00 | 9.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.30 | 5.50 | 10.00 | 1.54 | 2.32 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.32 | 5.60 | 9.00 | 1.58 | 2.19 |
| Coolbet | 1.35 (best price) | 5.30 | 9.90 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.33 | 5.25 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.33 | 5.50 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.30 | 5.40 | 9.50 | 1.56 | 2.35 (best price) |
| GTbets | 1.34 | 5.41 | 9.27 | 1.61 | 2.28 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.33 | 5.25 | 9.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.30 | 5.50 | 10.00 | 1.54 | 2.32 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.30 | 5.50 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.33 | 5.50 | 10.25 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.29 | 5.30 | 8.50 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.35 (best price) | 5.20 | 9.90 | 1.65 (best price) | 2.28 |
| Paddy Power | 1.29 | 5.50 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.33 | 5.60 | 9.41 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.30 | 5.50 | 10.00 | 1.48 | 2.23 |
| Sky Bet | 1.30 | 5.25 | 8.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.34 | 5.80 | 10.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.30 | 5.60 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.32 | 5.75 | 10.00 | 1.54 | 2.32 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.30 | 5.60 | 10.00 | 1.54 | 2.32 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.30 | 5.25 | 9.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.30 | 5.70 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.28 | 5.50 | 7.75 | — | — |
Analysis
Austria are favoured but only just. The model and the market may align cleanly here.
Group J’s other Day 6 opener at Levi’s Stadium. Late kickoff. Neutral venue.
Austria had a strong Euro 2024 run before falling in the round of 16. The cycle has been built around an intense, high-pressing 4-2-3-1 with Arnautović as the focal point and Sabitzer/Laimer doing the legwork. Elo (1701) reflects a side that has steadily improved over the cycle but still has the talent ceiling of an honest top-25 nation.
Jordan are at their first World Cup. The squad qualified through the Asian playoffs with a couple of strong performances and a manageable draw. Style is a deep mid-block, occasional transitions through the front three, set-piece focus. Elo (1656) reflects a side that has improved a lot in the cycle but is still untested against tier-1 European opposition.
Model view. Austria 45% / 26% / 29%, xG 1.45–1.10, BTTS 51%. Close to the kind of true pick’em with mild favourite that the model is best calibrated on.
Betting angle. This is a small-edges match. The market will be reasonably efficient.
- Draw at 3.30+ — model 26%, fair ~3.85
- BTTS-Yes at 2.00+ — model 51%, fair ~1.96
- Jordan +0.5 AH at 1.70+ — combined Jordan-win + draw = 55%, fair ~1.82
Avoid: Austria -1.5 AH (only ~24%), either ML at the short side.
Sit-this-one-out is a perfectly defensible position. The model is roughly fair, the market will roughly agree, and the edges are small. Bet only if you’re picking a specific market mispricing, not because you have a view on the outcome.
Verify before betting
- Austria XI — Arnautović as anchor or rotation piece
- Jordan's manager and tactical identity
- Santa Clara evening kickoff; weather usually fine
- Austria missed Euro 2024 group stage exit — is the cycle still on track?
Team news
Austria · JordanBets on this match
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