Model vs market
our call = 57% model + 43% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Argentina | Draw | Austria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 62.8% | 23.4% | 13.8% |
| Market (de-vig) | 58.6% | 24.4% | 16.9% |
| Our call | 61.0% | 23.8% | 15.2% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Argentina's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Argentina | Push | Austria |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38.3% | — | 61.8% |
| -1 | 38.3% | 24.6% | 37.2% |
| -0.5 | 62.8% | — | 37.2% |
| 0 | 62.8% | 23.4% | 13.8% |
| +0.5 | 86.2% | — | 13.8% |
| +1 | 86.2% | 9.6% | 4.3% |
| +1.5 | 95.7% | — | 4.3% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 2.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| 3.5 | 27.8% | 72.2% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Argentina or Draw | 86.2% |
| Draw or Austria | 37.2% |
| Argentina or Austria (no draw) | 76.6% |
| DNB — Argentina | 81.9% |
| DNB — Austria | 18.1% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 12.4% |
| 1–0 | 12.3% |
| 1–1 | 11.1% |
| 2–1 | 9.6% |
| 0–0 | 7.8% |
| 3–0 | 7.8% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Argentina | Draw | Austria | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.70 (best price) | 3.97 (best price) | 5.50 (best price) | 1.98 (best price) | 1.86 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.79 | 5.50 (best price) | 1.98 (best price) | 1.86 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.65 | 3.50 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.61 | 3.68 | 5.10 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.50 (best price) | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.67 | 3.97 (best price) | 5.45 | 1.98 (best price) | 1.85 |
| BoyleSports | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.30 | 1.89 | 1.80 |
| Coral | 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.66 | 3.70 | 5.10 | 1.93 | 1.83 |
| GTbets | 1.70 (best price) | 3.86 | 5.41 | 1.97 | 1.81 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.25 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.30 | 1.89 | 1.80 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.30 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.63 | 3.68 | 5.35 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.63 | 3.70 | 5.10 | 1.90 | 1.81 |
| Paddy Power | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 3.67 | 5.28 | 1.94 | 1.85 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.30 | 1.83 | 1.73 |
| Sky Bet | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.25 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.62 | 3.95 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.60 | 3.75 | 5.30 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.68 | 3.85 | 5.40 | 1.89 | 1.80 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.68 | 3.85 | 5.40 | 1.89 | 1.80 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.25 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.50 | 5.00 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.58 | 3.65 | 4.70 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.56 | 3.55 | 4.60 | — | — |
Analysis
Argentina are clear favourites and the model agrees — a small but real edge on the home win.
Group J, matchday 2 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Argentina are the group’s standout name and a win here would put them in firm control of the qualification picture.
Argentina (Elo 1849) are the highest-rated side in the group and clear favourites at 1.65. The xG line of 1.87–0.68 reflects expected control, and the model gives them 66% to win.
Austria (Elo 1701) are organised and physical but rated 148 Elo points back. The model gives them 13% to win; a disciplined, low-block approach is their best route to a result.
Model view. Argentina 66% / 21% / 13%, xG 1.87–0.68, BTTS 42%, Under 2.5 53%. Argentina firmly favoured.
Betting angle. The data flags a modest edge on Argentina: 1.65 implies 61% but the model gives 66% — a 5.1% edge. Real but not large.
- Argentina ML at 1.65 — model 66%, fair ~1.52; the flagged value
- Argentina -0.5 AH = the straight win, 66%, same fair ~1.52
- Under 2.5 at 1.81 — model 53%, fair ~1.89, supported if Austria sit deep
Avoid: Austria ML (13%), Argentina -1.5 chasing a margin (under coin-flip), BTTS yes short (model 42%).
Argentina are correctly favoured and the ML carries a small edge at 1.65. Confirm the front line is at full strength before backing the home win.
Verify before betting
- Argentina's matchday-1 result — a win likely puts top spot in reach
- Argentina's attacking shape and Messi-era role definition
- Austria's organised, physical approach as the underdog
- Dallas roof/heat environment and any rotation
Team news
Argentina · AustriaBets on this match
No bets placed.