Model vs market
our call = 49% model + 51% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Jordan | Draw | Algeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 19.8% | 26.4% | 53.8% |
| Market (de-vig) | 15.4% | 23.0% | 61.7% |
| Our call | 17.5% | 24.7% | 57.8% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Jordan's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Jordan | Push | Algeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6.9% | — | 93.1% |
| -1 | 6.9% | 12.8% | 80.3% |
| -0.5 | 19.8% | — | 80.3% |
| 0 | 19.8% | 26.4% | 53.8% |
| +0.5 | 46.2% | — | 53.8% |
| +1 | 46.2% | 24.0% | 29.9% |
| +1.5 | 70.1% | — | 29.9% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 2.5 | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 3.5 | 25.9% | 74.1% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Jordan or Draw | 46.2% |
| Draw or Algeria | 80.3% |
| Jordan or Algeria (no draw) | 73.6% |
| DNB — Jordan | 26.8% |
| DNB — Algeria | 73.2% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.6% |
| 0–1 | 11.6% |
| 0–2 | 10.5% |
| 1–2 | 9.6% |
| 0–0 | 8.6% |
| 1–0 | 6.0% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 29 books · as ofAll 29 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Jordan | Draw | Algeria | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 6.00 (best price) | 4.20 (best price) | 1.64 (best price) | 1.98 (best price) | 1.88 (best price) |
| 888sport | 5.50 | 3.70 | 1.57 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 5.60 | 3.85 | 1.53 | — | — |
| Betfair | 5.90 | 4.10 | 1.58 | — | — |
| Betfair | 5.90 | 4.10 | 1.58 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 6.00 (best price) | 4.00 | 1.53 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 5.95 | 3.97 | 1.62 | 1.93 | 1.88 (best price) |
| BoyleSports | 6.00 (best price) | 3.80 | 1.55 | — | — |
| Casumo | 5.75 | 4.00 | 1.60 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
| Coral | 5.50 | 3.90 | 1.60 | — | — |
| Everygame | 5.75 | 4.10 | 1.57 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 5.60 | 3.95 | 1.57 | 1.89 | 1.85 |
| GTbets | 5.48 | 3.93 | 1.64 (best price) | 1.98 (best price) | 1.81 |
| Ladbrokes | 5.50 | 3.90 | 1.60 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 5.75 | 4.00 | 1.60 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 5.75 | 4.00 | 1.60 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 5.95 | 3.92 | 1.54 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 5.70 | 3.85 | 1.55 | 1.91 | 1.80 |
| Paddy Power | 6.00 (best price) | 4.00 | 1.53 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 5.63 | 3.98 | 1.55 | 1.91 | 1.88 (best price) |
| PMU (FR) | 5.75 | 4.00 | 1.60 | 1.80 | 1.76 |
| Sky Bet | 6.00 (best price) | 3.90 | 1.55 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 5.30 | 4.20 (best price) | 1.59 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 5.80 | 3.95 | 1.53 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 6.00 (best price) | 4.10 | 1.61 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
| Unibet (SE) | 5.80 | 4.10 | 1.60 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
| Unibet (UK) | 5.75 | 3.90 | 1.55 | — | — |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 3.70 | 1.57 | 1.91 | 1.80 |
| Winamax (DE) | 5.20 | 3.85 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.49 | — | — |
Analysis
Algeria are the stronger side and the model agrees — but the line is fair, so lean the under.
Group J, matchday 2 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. Algeria are the higher-rated side and favoured to take a step toward the knockouts; Jordan will look to frustrate and counter.
Jordan (Elo 1656) are organised and combative but limited in attack, and the model gives them just 14% to win. A low-scoring, set-piece-decided game is their best path to anything.
Algeria (Elo 1795) are 139 Elo points higher — technical, quick, and dangerous. The model’s xG line of 1.83 in their favour and a 64% win probability reflect a clear class gap.
Model view. Algeria 14% / 22% / 64% (home/draw/away), xG 0.72–1.83, BTTS 43%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Algeria.
Betting angle. No edge flagged — the market (Algeria ~1.57) sits right on the model. This is an efficient line, so the value is in the derivatives rather than the headline.
- Under 2.5 at 1.83 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; supported if Jordan sit deep
- Algeria -0.5 AH = the straight win, 64%, fair ~1.56
- BTTS no ~1.8 — model 57% no, Jordan may be shut out
Avoid: Jordan ML (14%), Algeria -1.5 chasing a margin against a low block, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Algeria are correctly favoured and the line is fair — the lean is the under against a Jordanian block. Confirm Algeria’s attackers start before leaning on the control script.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — Algeria likely favoured for a knockout push
- Algeria's technical attack vs a Jordanian low block
- Jordan's discipline and set-piece threat as the underdog
- Santa Clara conditions and any rotation
Team news
Jordan · AlgeriaBets on this match
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