The model's pre-kickoff call was Algeria win at 61.1%, and it gave the actual result (Jordan win) 15.5%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Jordan | Draw | Algeria | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 7.00 (best price) | 4.50 (best price) | 1.60 (best price) | 2.00 (best price) | 1.98 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 6.87 | 4.39 | 1.56 | 1.95 | 1.92 |
| 888sport | 7.00 (best price) | 3.90 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 6.50 | 4.10 | 1.50 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 6.25 | 4.30 | 1.53 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 6.60 | 4.40 | 1.52 | — | — |
| Betfair | 6.80 | 4.40 | 1.58 | — | — |
| Betfair | 6.80 | 4.40 | 1.58 | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 5.50 | 3.60 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.53 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 6.25 | 4.40 | 1.56 | 1.94 | 1.91 |
| Betsson | 6.30 | 4.00 | 1.60 (best price) | 1.90 | 1.92 |
| Betway | 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Casumo | 6.40 | 4.25 | 1.51 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| Codere (IT) | 6.20 | 4.30 | 1.53 | 1.83 | 1.84 |
| Coolbet | 6.65 | 4.35 | 1.56 | 1.93 | 1.93 |
| Coral | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.53 | — | — |
| Everygame | 6.25 | 4.20 | 1.53 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 6.25 | 4.20 | 1.50 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| GTbets | 6.14 | 4.15 | 1.56 | 1.92 | 1.86 |
| Ladbrokes | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.53 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 6.40 | 4.25 | 1.51 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 6.40 | 4.25 | 1.51 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 6.25 | 4.10 | 1.49 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 6.80 | 4.40 | 1.58 | 2.00 (best price) | 1.98 (best price) |
| MyBookie.ag | 6.10 | 4.20 | 1.52 | 1.89 | 1.92 |
| Nordic Bet | 6.80 | 4.25 | 1.52 | 1.95 | 1.88 |
| Paddy Power | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 6.60 | 4.45 | 1.54 | 1.97 | 1.93 |
| PMU (FR) | 6.40 | 4.35 | 1.53 | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Sky Bet | 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 6.80 | 4.40 | 1.57 | — | — |
| Tipico | 6.70 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 7.00 (best price) | 4.45 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 6.75 | 4.35 | 1.53 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| Unibet (SE) | 6.75 | 4.35 | 1.53 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Unibet (UK) | 6.50 | 4.35 | 1.54 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 6.25 | 4.10 | 1.49 | — | — |
| William Hill | 7.00 (best price) | 4.00 | 1.44 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Winamax (DE) | 6.00 | 4.50 (best price) | 1.52 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 5.90 | 4.40 | 1.52 | — | — |
Analysis
Algeria are the stronger side and the model agrees — but the line is fair, so lean the under.
Group J, matchday 2 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. Algeria are the higher-rated side and favoured to take a step toward the knockouts; Jordan will look to frustrate and counter.
Jordan (Elo 1656) are organised and combative but limited in attack, and the model gives them just 14% to win. A low-scoring, set-piece-decided game is their best path to anything.
Algeria (Elo 1795) are 139 Elo points higher — technical, quick, and dangerous. The model’s xG line of 1.83 in their favour and a 64% win probability reflect a clear class gap.
Model view. Algeria 14% / 22% / 64% (home/draw/away), xG 0.72–1.83, BTTS 43%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Algeria.
Model vs market. No edge flagged — the market (Algeria ~1.57) sits right on the model. This is an efficient line, so the value is in the derivatives rather than the headline.
- Under 2.5 at 1.83 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; supported if Jordan sit deep
- Algeria -0.5 AH = the straight win, 64%, fair ~1.56
- BTTS no ~1.8 — model 57% no, Jordan may be shut out
Avoid: Jordan ML (14%), Algeria -1.5 chasing a margin against a low block, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Algeria are correctly favoured and the line is fair — the lean is the under against a Jordanian block. Confirm Algeria’s attackers start before leaning on the control script.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — Algeria likely favoured for a knockout push
- Algeria's technical attack vs a Jordanian low block
- Jordan's discipline and set-piece threat as the underdog
- Santa Clara conditions and any rotation