The model's pre-kickoff call was Austria win at 34.1%, and it gave the actual result (Draw) 32.6%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 33 books · as ofAll 33 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Algeria | Draw | Austria | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 3.50 (best price) | 2.90 (best price) | 2.80 (best price) | 2.24 (best price) | 1.75 (best price) |
| 888sport | 3.00 | 2.80 | 2.50 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.03 | 2.53 | 2.67 | — | — |
| Betfair | 3.50 (best price) | 2.80 | 2.74 | — | — |
| Betfair | 3.50 (best price) | 2.80 | 2.74 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.10 | 2.88 | 2.62 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.39 | 2.70 | 2.70 | — | — |
| Betway | 3.20 | 2.62 | 2.50 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 3.00 | 2.90 (best price) | 2.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 3.35 | 2.65 | 2.80 (best price) | 2.14 | 1.68 |
| Coral | 3.10 | 2.80 | 2.62 | — | — |
| Everygame | 3.30 | 2.65 | 2.75 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 3.25 | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.14 | 1.68 |
| GTbets | 3.24 | 2.80 | 2.57 | 2.24 (best price) | 1.65 |
| Ladbrokes | 3.10 | 2.80 | 2.60 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 3.35 | 2.65 | 2.80 (best price) | 2.14 | 1.68 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.35 | 2.65 | 2.80 (best price) | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.20 | 2.60 | 2.70 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 3.45 | 2.80 | 2.74 | 2.24 (best price) | 1.75 (best price) |
| MyBookie.ag | 3.10 | 2.80 | 2.63 | 2.13 | 1.64 |
| Paddy Power | 3.30 | 2.62 | 2.60 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 3.13 | 2.50 | 2.62 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 3.20 | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.08 | 1.65 |
| Sky Bet | 3.30 | 2.63 | 2.60 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 3.50 (best price) | 2.80 | 2.74 | — | — |
| Tipico | 3.20 | 2.75 | 2.65 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.20 | 2.85 | 2.60 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.35 | 2.65 | 2.80 (best price) | 2.14 | 1.68 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.35 | 2.65 | 2.80 (best price) | 2.17 | 1.71 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.60 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 3.20 | 2.60 | 2.70 | — | — |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 2.80 | 2.50 | 2.15 | 1.65 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.85 | 2.70 | 2.45 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.75 | 2.60 | 2.35 | — | — |
Analysis
Model rates Algeria well above the market here — a big flagged edge on the home win in the Group J finale.
Group J, matchday 3 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. With Argentina expected to top the group, this is effectively a play-in for the runner-up spot — and the model has a firm lean.
Algeria (Elo 1795) are the home side and rated 94 Elo points above Austria — technical, quick, and the clear class side in this matchup. The model makes them favourites at 55%, well above the 3.30 price.
Austria (Elo 1701) are organised and physical but outgunned, and the model gives them 20% to win. A disciplined block is their best route to a result.
Model view. Algeria 55% / 24% / 20%, xG 1.65–0.90, BTTS 48%, Under 2.5 53%. Algeria firmly favoured.
Model vs market. The data flags Algeria as the edge: 3.30 implies 30% but the model gives 55% — a 24.9% edge, one of the largest in this batch. The market is badly underrating the home side.
- Algeria ML at 3.30 — model 55%, fair ~1.82; the headline value of the matchday
- Algeria -0.5 AH = the straight win, 55%, same fair ~1.82
- Under 2.5 at 1.62 — model 53%, fair ~1.89, supported if Austria sit deep
Avoid: Austria ML on the price (only 20%), over 2.5 against a 53% under read, BTTS yes short (model 48%).
Algeria at 3.30 against a 55% model probability is the standout edge in Group J’s finale. An edge this size warrants a team-news check — confirm Algeria are at full strength and motivated before stacking it.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group J standings — this could decide a knockout place for both
- Algeria's technical attack vs an organised Austrian block
- Whether either side is already through and may rotate
- Kansas City conditions and any lineup changes