Model vs market
our call = 51% model + 49% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Algeria | Draw | Austria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 34.2% | 30.3% | 35.5% |
| Market (de-vig) | 28.2% | 29.3% | 42.5% |
| Our call | 31.3% | 29.8% | 38.9% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Algeria's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Algeria | Push | Austria |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.7% | — | 85.3% |
| -1 | 14.7% | 19.6% | 65.8% |
| -0.5 | 34.2% | — | 65.8% |
| 0 | 34.2% | 30.3% | 35.5% |
| +0.5 | 64.5% | — | 35.5% |
| +1 | 64.5% | 20.0% | 15.5% |
| +1.5 | 84.5% | — | 15.5% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69.3% | 30.7% |
| 2.5 | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 3.5 | 21.2% | 78.8% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Algeria or Draw | 64.5% |
| Draw or Austria | 65.8% |
| Algeria or Austria (no draw) | 69.7% |
| DNB — Algeria | 49.1% |
| DNB — Austria | 50.9% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.3% |
| 0–0 | 10.6% |
| 0–1 | 10.2% |
| 1–0 | 9.9% |
| 1–2 | 7.8% |
| 2–1 | 7.7% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 27 books · as ofAll 27 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Algeria | Draw | Austria | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 3.50 (best price) | 3.30 (best price) | 2.35 (best price) | 2.20 (best price) | 1.67 (best price) |
| 888sport | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.25 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.27 | 3.12 | 2.17 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.10 | 3.30 (best price) | 2.30 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.40 | 3.18 | 2.34 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.25 | — | — |
| Casumo | 3.50 (best price) | 3.25 | 2.08 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| Coral | 3.20 | 3.25 | 2.25 | — | — |
| Everygame | 3.40 | 3.05 | 2.35 (best price) | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 3.50 (best price) | 3.25 | 2.08 | 2.20 (best price) | 1.62 |
| GTbets | 3.32 | 3.15 | 2.30 | 2.17 | 1.66 |
| Ladbrokes | 3.20 | 3.25 | 2.25 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 3.50 (best price) | 3.25 | 2.08 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.50 (best price) | 3.25 | 2.08 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.50 (best price) | 3.25 | 2.08 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 3.32 | 3.08 | 2.24 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 3.26 | 3.12 | 2.20 | 2.08 | 1.67 (best price) |
| Paddy Power | 3.20 | 3.30 (best price) | 2.25 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 3.36 | 2.98 | 2.31 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.25 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 3.05 | 2.92 | 2.32 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.50 (best price) | 3.25 | 2.08 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.50 (best price) | 3.25 | 2.08 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.20 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 3.50 (best price) | 3.25 | 2.08 | — | — |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.25 | 2.15 | 1.65 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.05 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Model rates Algeria well above the market here — a big flagged edge on the home win in the Group J finale.
Group J, matchday 3 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. With Argentina expected to top the group, this is effectively a play-in for the runner-up spot — and the model has a firm lean.
Algeria (Elo 1795) are the home side and rated 94 Elo points above Austria — technical, quick, and the clear class side in this matchup. The model makes them favourites at 55%, well above the 3.30 price.
Austria (Elo 1701) are organised and physical but outgunned, and the model gives them 20% to win. A disciplined block is their best route to a result.
Model view. Algeria 55% / 24% / 20%, xG 1.65–0.90, BTTS 48%, Under 2.5 53%. Algeria firmly favoured.
Betting angle. The data flags Algeria as the edge: 3.30 implies 30% but the model gives 55% — a 24.9% edge, one of the largest in this batch. The market is badly underrating the home side.
- Algeria ML at 3.30 — model 55%, fair ~1.82; the headline value of the matchday
- Algeria -0.5 AH = the straight win, 55%, same fair ~1.82
- Under 2.5 at 1.62 — model 53%, fair ~1.89, supported if Austria sit deep
Avoid: Austria ML on the price (only 20%), over 2.5 against a 53% under read, BTTS yes short (model 48%).
Algeria at 3.30 against a 55% model probability is the standout edge in Group J’s finale. An edge this size warrants a team-news check — confirm Algeria are at full strength and motivated before stacking it.
Verify before betting
- Group J standings — this could decide a knockout place for both
- Algeria's technical attack vs an organised Austrian block
- Whether either side is already through and may rotate
- Kansas City conditions and any lineup changes
Team news
Algeria · AustriaNo recent news mentioning Algeria or Austria.
Bets on this match
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