The model's pre-kickoff call was Argentina win at 78.6%, and it gave the actual result (Argentina win) 78.6%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 33 books · as ofAll 33 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Jordan | Draw | Argentina | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 16.00 (best price) | 7.40 (best price) | 1.25 (best price) | 1.62 (best price) | 2.43 (best price) |
| 888sport | 12.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 11.75 | 6.75 | 1.18 | — | — |
| Betfair | 14.00 | 7.40 (best price) | 1.25 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 14.00 | 7.40 (best price) | 1.25 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 15.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 14.00 | 7.25 | 1.21 | — | — |
| Betway | 10.00 | 7.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Casumo | 16.00 (best price) | 6.75 | 1.21 | 1.55 | 2.38 |
| Coral | 11.00 | 7.00 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Everygame | 11.00 | 7.00 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 14.00 | 6.50 | 1.19 | 1.55 | 2.38 |
| GTbets | 11.96 | 6.77 | 1.21 | 1.62 (best price) | 2.30 |
| Ladbrokes | 11.00 | 6.50 | 1.22 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 16.00 (best price) | 6.75 | 1.21 | 1.55 | 2.38 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 16.00 (best price) | 6.75 | 1.21 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 14.00 | 6.50 | 1.19 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 14.00 | 7.20 | 1.25 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 11.75 | 6.50 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 10.61 | 6.50 | 1.20 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 14.00 | 6.50 | 1.19 | 1.51 | 2.33 |
| Sky Bet | 11.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 14.01 | 7.20 | 1.25 (best price) | — | — |
| Tipico | 13.00 | 7.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 13.00 | 6.90 | 1.21 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 16.00 (best price) | 6.75 | 1.21 | 1.55 | 2.38 |
| Unibet (SE) | 16.00 (best price) | 6.75 | 1.21 | 1.57 | 2.43 (best price) |
| Unibet (UK) | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 14.00 | 6.50 | 1.19 | — | — |
| William Hill | 12.00 | 6.00 | 1.22 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
| Winamax (DE) | 9.00 | 6.00 | 1.18 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 8.00 | 5.30 | 1.15 | — | — |
Analysis
Argentina should win the Group J finale comfortably — the value is on the under.
Group J, matchday 3 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Argentina are heavy favourites against the group’s weakest side; the question is the margin and the total.
Jordan (Elo 1656) are organised and combative but limited going forward, and the model gives them just 8% to win. A deep block trying to limit the damage is the realistic shape.
Argentina (Elo 1849) are 193 Elo points clear and priced at 1.17. The xG line of 2.05–0.50 is dominant, and the model gives them 74% to win — below the price’s implied ~85%.
Model view. Argentina 8% / 18% / 74% (home/draw/away), xG 0.50–2.05, BTTS 35%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Argentina.
Model vs market. The flagged edge is the under, not the win — the ML at 1.17 is roughly fair. Under 2.5 at 2.34 implies 43% but the model gives 53% — a 10.4% edge. A control job over a deep block keeps the total down.
- Under 2.5 at 2.34 — model 53%, implied 43%, a 10.4% edge; the clear value
- Argentina -1 AH ~1.6 — the 2.05–0.50 xG margin supports a one-goal cushion
- BTTS no short — model 65% no, Jordan likely shut out
Avoid: Argentina ML at 1.17 (no edge), Argentina -2.5 chasing a rout the under contradicts, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Argentina win this comfortably but the value is the under at 2.34, not the cramped ML. If Argentina rotate as expected favourites, the under gets even stronger — check the lineup.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group J standings — Argentina's qualification scenario and rotation risk
- Jordan's deep defensive block and how low they sit
- Argentina's first-choice attackers vs a rested XI
- Dallas roof/heat environment for the goal-total read