Model vs market
our call = 56% model + 44% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Jordan | Draw | Argentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 5.6% | 15.7% | 78.7% |
| Market (de-vig) | 5.6% | 10.9% | 83.5% |
| Our call | 5.6% | 13.6% | 80.8% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Jordan's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Jordan | Push | Argentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1.3% | — | 98.8% |
| -1 | 1.3% | 4.3% | 94.4% |
| -0.5 | 5.6% | — | 94.4% |
| 0 | 5.6% | 15.7% | 78.7% |
| +0.5 | 21.3% | — | 78.7% |
| +1 | 21.3% | 22.4% | 56.3% |
| +1.5 | 43.7% | — | 56.3% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| 2.5 | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| 3.5 | 33.1% | 66.9% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Jordan or Draw | 21.3% |
| Draw or Argentina | 94.4% |
| Jordan or Argentina (no draw) | 84.3% |
| DNB — Jordan | 6.6% |
| DNB — Argentina | 93.4% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 0–2 | 15.7% |
| 0–1 | 12.5% |
| 0–3 | 12.5% |
| 1–2 | 8.0% |
| 0–4 | 7.5% |
| 1–1 | 7.3% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 27 books · as ofAll 27 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Jordan | Draw | Argentina | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 15.00 (best price) | 7.50 (best price) | 1.22 (best price) | 1.56 (best price) | 2.38 (best price) |
| 888sport | 13.00 | 6.50 | 1.18 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 12.00 | 6.10 | 1.19 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 13.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 13.50 | 7.00 | 1.22 (best price) | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 15.00 (best price) | 6.50 | 1.18 | — | — |
| Casumo | 12.00 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.17 | — | — |
| Coral | 13.00 | 7.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Everygame | 13.00 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.18 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 12.00 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.17 | — | — |
| GTbets | 12.33 | 6.40 | 1.21 | 1.56 (best price) | 2.30 |
| Ladbrokes | 13.00 | 7.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 12.00 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.17 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 12.00 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.17 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 12.00 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.17 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 14.50 | 6.90 | 1.17 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 12.00 | 6.10 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 15.00 (best price) | 6.50 | 1.17 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 13.04 | 6.98 | 1.17 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 13.00 | 6.50 | 1.17 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 12.00 | 5.90 | 1.15 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 12.00 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.17 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 12.00 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.17 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 12.00 | 7.50 (best price) | 1.17 | — | — |
| William Hill | 13.00 | 6.50 | 1.18 | 1.53 | 2.38 (best price) |
| Winamax (DE) | 9.00 | 5.70 | 1.16 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 8.50 | 5.20 | 1.14 | — | — |
Analysis
Argentina should win the Group J finale comfortably — the value is on the under.
Group J, matchday 3 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Argentina are heavy favourites against the group’s weakest side; the question is the margin and the total.
Jordan (Elo 1656) are organised and combative but limited going forward, and the model gives them just 8% to win. A deep block trying to limit the damage is the realistic shape.
Argentina (Elo 1849) are 193 Elo points clear and priced at 1.17. The xG line of 2.05–0.50 is dominant, and the model gives them 74% to win — below the price’s implied ~85%.
Model view. Argentina 8% / 18% / 74% (home/draw/away), xG 0.50–2.05, BTTS 35%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Argentina.
Betting angle. The flagged edge is the under, not the win — the ML at 1.17 is roughly fair. Under 2.5 at 2.34 implies 43% but the model gives 53% — a 10.4% edge. A control job over a deep block keeps the total down.
- Under 2.5 at 2.34 — model 53%, implied 43%, a 10.4% edge; the clear value
- Argentina -1 AH ~1.6 — the 2.05–0.50 xG margin supports a one-goal cushion
- BTTS no short — model 65% no, Jordan likely shut out
Avoid: Argentina ML at 1.17 (no edge), Argentina -2.5 chasing a rout the under contradicts, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Argentina win this comfortably but the value is the under at 2.34, not the cramped ML. If Argentina rotate as expected favourites, the under gets even stronger — check the lineup.
Verify before betting
- Group J standings — Argentina's qualification scenario and rotation risk
- Jordan's deep defensive block and how low they sit
- Argentina's first-choice attackers vs a rested XI
- Dallas roof/heat environment for the goal-total read
Team news
Jordan · ArgentinaBets on this match
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