The model's pre-kickoff call was Portugal win at 71.8%, and it gave the actual result (Draw) 18.5%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 39 books · as ofAll 39 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Portugal | Draw | DR Congo | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.34 (best price) | 6.00 (best price) | 14.00 (best price) | 1.84 (best price) | 2.18 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.34 (best price) | 5.57 | 11.00 | 1.82 | 2.06 |
| 888sport | 1.25 | 5.00 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.25 | 5.50 | 12.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.30 | 5.65 | 13.25 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.29 | 5.75 | 12.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.31 | 5.80 | 14.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.31 | 5.90 | 14.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.22 | 4.50 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.25 | 5.50 | 12.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.29 | 5.70 | 12.95 | 1.80 | 2.09 |
| Betway | 1.25 | 5.50 | 12.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.27 | 5.50 | 12.50 | 1.77 | 2.02 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.28 | 5.60 | 11.00 | 1.73 | 1.95 |
| Coolbet | 1.30 | 5.55 | 13.25 | 1.82 | 2.06 |
| Coral | 1.28 | 5.75 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.28 | 5.50 | 12.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.27 | 5.40 | 12.50 | 1.77 | 2.02 |
| GTbets | 1.26 | 5.46 | 11.48 | 1.79 | 1.99 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.28 | 5.75 | 10.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.27 | 5.50 | 12.50 | 1.77 | 2.02 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.27 | 5.50 | 12.50 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.26 | 5.30 | 11.50 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.31 | 5.80 | 14.00 (best price) | 1.84 (best price) | 2.18 (best price) |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.28 | 5.40 | 10.80 | 1.79 | 2.03 |
| Paddy Power | 1.25 | 5.50 | 12.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.30 | 5.65 | 13.25 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.29 | 5.30 | 11.50 | 1.73 | 1.96 |
| Sky Bet | 1.25 | 6.00 (best price) | 11.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.31 | 5.80 | 13.50 | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.27 | 5.70 | 11.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.28 | 5.75 | 13.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.30 | 5.80 | 13.00 | 1.77 | 2.02 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.30 | 5.80 | 13.00 | 1.79 | 2.04 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.29 | 5.50 | 11.00 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.26 | 5.30 | 11.50 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 11.00 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.29 | 5.70 | 10.50 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.29 | 5.60 | 10.50 | — | — |
Analysis
Portugal's title-contender opener. DR Congo are the model's underrated CAF entrant.
Group K opens at NRG Stadium. Portugal arrive as one of the model’s top-8 sides in the field; DR Congo arrive as the most-underrated CAF qualifier behind Cape Verde.
Portugal are in the middle of a generational handover that has gone smoother than most. Bernardo, Bruno, Vitinha, Neves anchor the central spine. Rafael Leão and Félix on the flanks. Ronaldo still around at 41, but no longer the offensive engine. Elo (1775) is a steady-state number for what is roughly a top-8 squad — capable of winning the tournament, more likely to lose to Spain/France in a quarter-final.
DR Congo are the AFCON 2023 semi-finalists and the most-underrated CAF squad in the field. They have several Europe-based starters across positions, the manager has built a coherent 4-3-3 identity, and the qualification path was respectable. Elo (1671) probably understates them slightly — recent improvements haven’t fully fed through to the rating.
Model view. Portugal 57% / 24% / 19%, xG 1.69–0.86, BTTS 47%. Portugal favoured but not dominant.
Model vs market. The market will likely price Portugal at 1.50–1.60 ML. The model says fair is ~1.75. Reasonable but not screaming edge.
- Draw at 3.40+ — model 24%, fair ~4.17, often inflated when one side has name brand
- DR Congo +0.5 AH at 1.95+ — combined DR Congo-win + draw = 43%, fair ~2.33
- Under 2.5 at 2.00+ — model 53%, both teams play tight-tempo matches
Avoid: Portugal -1.5 AH (only ~33%), Ronaldo anytime at the short prices (he is no longer a 60-minute guaranteed-90 starter).
This is a quiet +EV draw market. The price will likely sit above fair because of Portugal name recognition.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Ronaldo's role at 41 — starter, super-sub, or symbolic?
- Portugal's manager XI choices — heavy rotation through friendlies
- DR Congo's keeper situation — historically inconsistent
- Houston midday heat for kickoff