Model vs market
our call = 60% model + 40% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Uzbekistan | Draw | Colombia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 9.8% | 20.1% | 70.1% |
| Market (de-vig) | 10.6% | 19.8% | 69.6% |
| Our call | 10.1% | 20.0% | 69.9% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Uzbekistan's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Uzbekistan | Push | Colombia |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.7% | — | 97.3% |
| -1 | 2.7% | 7.1% | 90.3% |
| -0.5 | 9.8% | — | 90.3% |
| 0 | 9.8% | 20.1% | 70.1% |
| +0.5 | 29.9% | — | 70.1% |
| +1 | 29.9% | 24.1% | 46.1% |
| +1.5 | 53.9% | — | 46.1% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 2.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 3.5 | 30.3% | 69.7% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Uzbekistan or Draw | 29.9% |
| Draw or Colombia | 90.3% |
| Uzbekistan or Colombia (no draw) | 79.9% |
| DNB — Uzbekistan | 12.2% |
| DNB — Colombia | 87.8% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 0–2 | 13.9% |
| 0–1 | 12.4% |
| 0–3 | 9.7% |
| 1–1 | 9.5% |
| 1–2 | 9.2% |
| 0–0 | 7.0% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 34 books · as ofAll 34 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Uzbekistan | Draw | Colombia | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 9.60 (best price) | 4.90 (best price) | 1.43 (best price) | 1.99 (best price) | 1.91 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 8.60 | 4.55 | 1.42 | 1.95 | 1.89 |
| 888sport | 6.50 | 4.50 | 1.33 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 8.25 | 4.45 | 1.41 | 1.95 | 1.87 |
| Betclic (FR) | 7.50 | 4.50 | 1.38 | — | — |
| Betfair | 9.60 (best price) | 4.90 (best price) | 1.43 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 9.60 (best price) | 4.90 (best price) | 1.43 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 8.50 | 4.50 | 1.40 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 9.00 | 4.77 | 1.40 | 1.92 | 1.90 |
| Betway | 7.50 | 4.33 | 1.38 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 8.00 | 4.33 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Casumo | 8.00 | 4.50 | 1.42 | 1.82 | 1.88 |
| Codere (IT) | 7.80 | 4.60 | 1.42 | 1.85 | 1.82 |
| Coolbet | 9.00 | 4.75 | 1.42 | 1.91 | 1.91 (best price) |
| Coral | 7.50 | 4.60 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Everygame | 8.50 | 4.50 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 8.00 | 4.40 | 1.40 | 1.85 | 1.91 (best price) |
| GTbets | 7.53 | 4.49 | 1.42 | 1.89 | 1.88 |
| Ladbrokes | 7.50 | 4.50 | 1.40 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 8.00 | 4.50 | 1.42 | 1.82 | 1.88 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 8.00 | 4.50 | 1.42 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 8.70 | 4.60 | 1.43 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 7.30 | 4.40 | 1.39 | 1.86 | 1.84 |
| Paddy Power | 8.50 | 4.50 | 1.36 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 8.50 | 4.56 | 1.43 (best price) | 1.99 (best price) | 1.90 |
| PMU (FR) | 8.00 | 4.50 | 1.42 | 1.75 | 1.81 |
| Sky Bet | 7.50 | 4.60 | 1.36 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 9.40 | 4.80 | 1.43 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 7.80 | 4.65 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 8.50 | 4.60 | 1.43 (best price) | 1.82 | 1.88 |
| Unibet (SE) | 8.50 | 4.60 | 1.42 | 1.82 | 1.88 |
| Unibet (UK) | 7.50 | 4.50 | 1.40 | — | — |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.50 | 1.33 | 1.91 | 1.80 |
| Winamax (DE) | 7.50 | 4.60 | 1.39 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 7.25 | 4.50 | 1.38 | — | — |
Analysis
Colombia are favoured. Uzbekistan are rated higher than you'd guess — and possibly deserve it.
Group K’s other Day 7 opener at Estadio Azteca. Late kickoff, high altitude — the altitude is the variable here.
Uzbekistan are at their first World Cup, qualified directly from Asia by beating actual contenders (not just hammering minnows). The squad has steadily improved over the cycle, the federation has invested in coaching infrastructure, and the Elo (1703) is probably accurate to slightly understated. They are the kind of tournament newcomer who could legitimately surprise — not on raw talent but on tactical organisation.
Colombia are the South American Pot 2 side. The squad has the James/Cuadrado generation aging out alongside the Luis Díaz/Lerma generation peaking; the central spine is the weak point and the front line is the strength. Elo (1761) is fair. Tactically a 4-2-3-1, possession-based, transitions through the wide front.
Model view. Colombia 26% / 26% / 48%, xG 1.04–1.51, BTTS 50%. Colombia favoured but not heavily.
Betting angle. The market will price Colombia at 1.80–2.00 ML, which is reasonable on the model. The altitude variable matters here — Colombia’s players are mostly La Liga-/Premier-based and not altitude-conditioned. Uzbekistan typically train at moderate altitude.
- Uzbekistan +0.5 AH at 1.80+ — combined Uzbekistan-win + draw = 52%, fair ~1.92
- Draw at 3.40+ — model 26%, fair ~3.85
- Under 2.5 at 2.00+ — altitude tends to suppress scoring rates by ~10-15%
Avoid: Colombia ML at any price under 1.85 (no edge), Colombia -1.5 AH (only ~25%).
This is the altitude wildcard match of Day 7. If Colombia look gassed by the 70th minute, Uzbekistan have real value as the live underdog.
Verify before betting
- Colombia's James/Cuadrado/Díaz front three — fitness/role definition
- Uzbekistan's qualifying record — they beat several Asian heavyweights, no fluke
- Mexico City altitude (2,240m) — favours the more aerobically prepared side
- Both sides have travelled — Uzbekistan from Central Asia, Colombia from CONMEBOL
Team news
Uzbekistan · ColombiaNo recent news mentioning Uzbekistan or Colombia.
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