Model vs market
our call = 29% model + 71% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Portugal | Draw | Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 67.0% | 21.6% | 11.5% |
| Market (de-vig) | 84.3% | 11.1% | 4.6% |
| Our call | 79.2% | 14.2% | 6.6% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Portugal's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Portugal | Push | Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42.6% | — | 57.4% |
| -1 | 42.6% | 24.3% | 33.0% |
| -0.5 | 67.0% | — | 33.0% |
| 0 | 67.0% | 21.6% | 11.5% |
| +0.5 | 88.5% | — | 11.5% |
| +1 | 88.5% | 8.2% | 3.3% |
| +1.5 | 96.7% | — | 3.3% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 2.5 | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| 3.5 | 29.4% | 70.6% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Portugal or Draw | 88.5% |
| Draw or Uzbekistan | 33.0% |
| Portugal or Uzbekistan (no draw) | 78.5% |
| DNB — Portugal | 85.4% |
| DNB — Uzbekistan | 14.6% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 13.2% |
| 1–0 | 12.3% |
| 1–1 | 10.2% |
| 2–1 | 9.5% |
| 3–0 | 8.9% |
| 0–0 | 7.3% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Portugal | Draw | Uzbekistan | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.23 (best price) | 8.50 (best price) | 20.00 (best price) | 1.65 (best price) | 2.50 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.19 | 8.00 | 20.00 (best price) | 1.60 | 2.43 |
| 888sport | 1.17 | 6.50 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.15 | 7.00 | 17.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.17 | 7.25 | 16.00 | 1.57 | 2.45 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.17 | 7.75 | 17.25 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 8.00 | 20.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 8.00 | 20.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.14 | 6.00 | 14.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.20 | 6.50 | 15.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.19 | 7.40 | 16.50 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.23 (best price) | 6.20 | 17.00 | 1.65 (best price) | 2.28 |
| Betway | 1.17 | 7.50 | 15.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.17 | 6.50 | 17.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.15 | 8.00 | 18.00 | 1.51 | 2.48 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.19 | 7.00 | 15.00 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
| Coolbet | 1.20 | 7.65 | 17.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.20 | 7.00 | 13.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.16 | 7.25 | 17.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.14 | 8.00 | 17.00 | 1.51 | 2.48 |
| GTbets | 1.19 | 6.94 | 15.95 | 1.57 | 2.35 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.20 | 7.00 | 13.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.15 | 8.00 | 18.00 | 1.51 | 2.48 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.15 | 8.00 | 18.00 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.14 | 7.50 | 17.00 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.20 | 8.00 | 20.00 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.17 | 7.00 | 15.73 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.19 | 6.70 | 19.50 | 1.58 | 2.42 |
| Paddy Power | 1.14 | 7.00 | 16.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.18 | 7.74 | 17.81 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.14 | 7.50 | 17.00 | 1.49 | 2.43 |
| Sky Bet | 1.14 | 7.50 | 16.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.20 | 8.00 | 20.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.16 | 7.80 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.16 | 8.10 | 18.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.16 | 8.50 (best price) | 20.00 (best price) | 1.51 | 2.48 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.16 | 8.50 (best price) | 20.00 (best price) | 1.54 | 2.50 (best price) |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.19 | 7.00 | 16.00 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.14 | 7.50 | 17.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.17 | 7.00 | 15.00 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.18 | 7.50 | 13.50 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.17 | 7.25 | 13.50 | — | — |
Analysis
Portugal are favoured but the model rates Uzbekistan far higher than the market — stacked value on the dog.
Group K, matchday 2 at NRG Stadium in Houston. Portugal carry the brand and the short price, but the model gives Uzbekistan far more respect than the market does.
Portugal (Elo 1775) are the marquee name and favourites at 1.25, but the model only gives them 51% to win — well below the price’s implied ~80%. Talented but the model isn’t convinced the gap is that wide.
Uzbekistan (Elo 1703) are rated only 72 Elo points back — a well-organised debutant-level side who qualified by beating genuine Asian contenders. The model gives them 24% to win, far above the 11.00 away price.
Model view. Portugal 51% / 25% / 24%, xG 1.57–0.98, BTTS 50%, Under 2.5 53%. Portugal-leaning but far from a lock.
Model vs market. The data flags three edges. Uzbekistan at 11.00 implies 9% but the model gives 24% — a 14.7% edge, the standout. The under and the draw are also flagged.
- Uzbekistan ML at 11.00 — model 24%, fair ~4.17; the headline value as the badly-underrated dog
- Under 2.5 at 2.40 — model 53%, implied 42%, an 11.4% edge
- Draw at 6.00 — model 25%, implied 17%, an 8.7% edge
Avoid: Portugal ML at 1.25 (model only 51% — a heavy over-price), Portugal -1.5 chasing a margin.
The market has Portugal at 80% implied; the model says 51% and flags Uzbekistan, the under, and the draw all as value. This is a fade-the-favourite-price spot — verify Uzbekistan’s qualifying form is as strong as the rating suggests.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Portugal's matchday-1 result — a win likely puts top spot in reach
- Uzbekistan's qualifying pedigree — they beat real Asian contenders, no fluke
- Houston roof/heat environment for the goal-total read
- Portugal rotation and whether the name is inflating the price