Model vs market
our call = 59% model + 41% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Colombia | Draw | DR Congo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 63.6% | 23.0% | 13.4% |
| Market (de-vig) | 66.3% | 22.1% | 11.6% |
| Our call | 64.7% | 22.7% | 12.7% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Colombia's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Colombia | Push | DR Congo |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39.1% | — | 60.9% |
| -1 | 39.1% | 24.5% | 36.4% |
| -0.5 | 63.6% | — | 36.4% |
| 0 | 63.6% | 23.0% | 13.4% |
| +0.5 | 86.6% | — | 13.4% |
| +1 | 86.6% | 9.3% | 4.1% |
| +1.5 | 95.9% | — | 4.1% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 2.5 | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| 3.5 | 28.2% | 71.8% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Colombia or Draw | 86.6% |
| Draw or DR Congo | 36.4% |
| Colombia or DR Congo (no draw) | 77.0% |
| DNB — Colombia | 82.6% |
| DNB — DR Congo | 17.4% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 12.5% |
| 1–0 | 12.2% |
| 1–1 | 10.9% |
| 2–1 | 9.6% |
| 3–0 | 8.0% |
| 0–0 | 7.7% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 29 books · as ofAll 29 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Colombia | Draw | DR Congo | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.50 (best price) | 4.42 (best price) | 8.40 (best price) | 2.20 (best price) | 1.72 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 3.80 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.42 | 4.05 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.50 (best price) | 4.30 | 8.40 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.50 (best price) | 4.30 | 8.40 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.50 (best price) | 4.00 | 7.50 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.47 | 4.42 (best price) | 7.93 | 2.20 (best price) | 1.71 |
| BoyleSports | 1.44 | 3.80 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.49 | 4.10 | 7.50 | 2.04 | 1.70 |
| Coral | 1.50 (best price) | 4.20 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.45 | 4.33 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.48 | 4.00 | 7.00 | 2.07 | 1.72 (best price) |
| GTbets | 1.50 (best price) | 4.10 | 7.32 | 2.18 | 1.66 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.50 (best price) | 4.00 | 7.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.49 | 4.10 | 7.50 | 2.04 | 1.70 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.49 | 4.10 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.44 | 4.10 | 7.50 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.44 | 4.10 | 7.10 | 2.13 | 1.64 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44 | 4.00 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.44 | 4.19 | 7.08 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.49 | 4.10 | 7.50 | 1.95 | 1.63 |
| Sky Bet | 1.44 | 4.00 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.50 (best price) | 4.40 | 8.40 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.42 | 4.15 | 7.30 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.50 (best price) | 4.20 | 7.50 | 2.04 | 1.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.49 | 4.20 | 7.50 | 2.04 | 1.70 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.45 | 4.00 | 7.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.80 | 7.00 | 2.10 | 1.67 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.41 | 4.00 | 6.25 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.39 | 3.90 | 6.25 | — | — |
Analysis
Colombia are favoured but the model rates DR Congo higher than the market — value on the away dog.
Group K, matchday 2 at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara. Colombia are favoured to push for a knockout place, but the model gives DR Congo more credit than the long price.
Colombia (Elo 1761) are a possession-based South American side and favourites at 1.47. The xG line of 1.64–0.91 leans their way, and the model gives them 54% to win — below the price’s implied ~68%.
DR Congo (Elo 1671) are only 90 Elo points back — athletic, physical, and a genuine hard out. The model gives them 21% to win, above the 7.50 away price.
Model view. Colombia 54% / 25% / 21%, xG 1.64–0.91, BTTS 48%, Under 2.5 53%. Colombia-leaning but live.
Betting angle. The data flags DR Congo as the edge: 7.50 implies 13% but the model gives 21% — a 7.7% edge as the underrated away dog.
- DR Congo ML at 7.50 — model 21%, fair ~4.76; the flagged value
- Draw at 4.10 — model 25%, fair ~4.00, roughly fair and live
- Under 2.5 at 1.70 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; altitude tends to suppress scoring
Avoid: Colombia ML at 1.47 (model only 54% — an over-price), Colombia -1.5 chasing a margin.
The market has Colombia at 68% implied; the model says 54% and flags DR Congo at 7.50 as the value dog. Altitude is a wildcard against the more European-based Colombians — confirm both lineups before betting.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — this likely shapes the runner-up race
- Colombia's possession-based front line and its fitness
- DR Congo's athletic, physical approach as the underdog
- Guadalajara altitude and any rotation
Team news
Colombia · DR CongoNo recent news mentioning Colombia or DR Congo.
Bets on this match
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