Model vs market
our call = 40% model + 60% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Colombia | Draw | Portugal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 34.7% | 30.4% | 34.9% |
| Market (de-vig) | 25.9% | 27.3% | 46.9% |
| Our call | 29.4% | 28.5% | 42.1% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Colombia's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Colombia | Push | Portugal |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.9% | — | 85.1% |
| -1 | 14.9% | 19.8% | 65.3% |
| -0.5 | 34.7% | — | 65.3% |
| 0 | 34.7% | 30.4% | 34.9% |
| +0.5 | 65.1% | — | 34.9% |
| +1 | 65.1% | 19.9% | 15.0% |
| +1.5 | 85.0% | — | 15.0% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 2.5 | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| 3.5 | 20.8% | 79.2% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Colombia or Draw | 65.1% |
| Draw or Portugal | 65.3% |
| Colombia or Portugal (no draw) | 69.6% |
| DNB — Colombia | 49.8% |
| DNB — Portugal | 50.2% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.3% |
| 0–0 | 10.8% |
| 0–1 | 10.2% |
| 1–0 | 10.1% |
| 1–2 | 7.7% |
| 2–1 | 7.7% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 34 books · as ofAll 34 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Colombia | Draw | Portugal | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 3.80 (best price) | 3.80 (best price) | 2.10 (best price) | 2.14 (best price) | 1.82 (best price) |
| 888sport | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.05 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.58 | 3.35 | 1.98 | — | — |
| Betfair | 3.80 (best price) | 3.75 | 2.08 | — | — |
| Betfair | 3.80 (best price) | 3.75 | 2.08 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.05 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.55 | 3.61 | 2.10 (best price) | — | — |
| Betway | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.95 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 3.65 | 3.50 | 2.08 | 2.04 | 1.75 |
| Coolbet | 3.75 | 3.50 | 2.08 | 2.05 | 1.78 |
| Coral | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.05 | — | — |
| Everygame | 3.65 | 3.45 | 2.05 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 3.55 | 3.40 | 2.04 | 2.04 | 1.75 |
| GTbets | 3.72 | 3.37 | 2.08 | 2.06 | 1.74 |
| Ladbrokes | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 3.65 | 3.50 | 2.08 | 2.04 | 1.75 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.65 | 3.50 | 2.08 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.55 | 3.35 | 2.02 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 3.80 (best price) | 3.80 (best price) | 2.08 | 2.14 (best price) | 1.82 (best price) |
| MyBookie.ag | 3.60 | 3.38 | 2.05 | 2.04 | 1.70 |
| Paddy Power | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 3.59 | 3.43 | 2.01 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 3.55 | 3.35 | 2.02 | 1.97 | 1.71 |
| Sky Bet | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 3.80 (best price) | 3.80 (best price) | 2.08 | — | — |
| Tipico | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.97 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.75 | 3.50 | 2.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.65 | 3.50 | 2.08 | 2.04 | 1.75 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.65 | 3.50 | 2.08 | 2.07 | 1.78 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.05 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 3.55 | 3.35 | 2.02 | — | — |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.05 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.25 | 3.20 | 1.90 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.10 | 3.05 | 1.86 | — | — |
Analysis
Group K top-spot decider — model rates it a near coin-flip with a faint Portugal lean and no clear edge.
Group K, matchday 3 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Two of the group’s strongest sides meet to settle top spot in a genuinely close matchup.
Colombia (Elo 1761) are the home side and rated only 14 Elo points below Portugal. Possession-based and dangerous through the front line, the model gives them 34% to win.
Portugal (Elo 1775) are fractionally higher-rated and the model’s slight favourite at 39%, with a large chunk of the equity in the draw. This is close to a coin-flip.
Model view. Portugal 34% / 27% / 39% (home/draw/away), xG 1.22–1.33, BTTS 52%, Under 2.5 53%. Near-even with a faint Portugal tilt.
Model vs market. No edge flagged — the market sits on the model. This is an efficient, tight line, so look to the draw and BTTS rather than picking a side.
- Draw at 3.25 — model 27%, fair ~3.70; the value pocket in a coin-flip decider
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 52%, two willing attacks at near-parity
- Under 2.5 at 1.64 — model 53%, fair ~1.89, supported if both play cautiously
Avoid: backing either side as a clear favourite (neither is), Portugal -0.5 at a short price (only 39% to win).
This is a coin-flip top-spot decider with no ML edge — the value is the draw and BTTS. Standings will dictate whether either side plays for a point; check qualification math and lineups before betting.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group K standings — this likely decides the group winner
- Whether either side is already through and may rotate
- Colombia's possession game vs Portugal's quality in transition
- Miami Gardens heat and both sides' lineup intentions