Model vs market
our call = 36% model + 64% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Colombia | Draw | Portugal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 39.7% | 29.8% | 30.4% |
| Market (de-vig) | 27.1% | 28.4% | 44.4% |
| Our call | 31.6% | 28.9% | 39.4% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Colombia's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Colombia | Push | Portugal |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.4% | — | 81.6% |
| -1 | 18.4% | 21.3% | 60.3% |
| -0.5 | 39.7% | — | 60.3% |
| 0 | 39.7% | 29.8% | 30.4% |
| +0.5 | 69.5% | — | 30.4% |
| +1 | 69.5% | 18.0% | 12.4% |
| +1.5 | 87.5% | — | 12.4% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| 2.5 | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| 3.5 | 21.9% | 78.1% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Colombia or Draw | 69.5% |
| Draw or Portugal | 60.3% |
| Colombia or Portugal (no draw) | 70.2% |
| DNB — Colombia | 56.6% |
| DNB — Portugal | 43.4% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.1% |
| 1–0 | 10.7% |
| 0–0 | 10.3% |
| 0–1 | 8.9% |
| 2–1 | 8.4% |
| 2–0 | 7.6% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 28 books · as ofAll 28 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Colombia | Draw | Portugal | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 3.50 (best price) | 3.40 (best price) | 2.20 (best price) | 2.15 (best price) | 1.74 (best price) |
| 888sport | 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.42 | 3.23 | 2.05 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.20 (best price) | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.50 (best price) | 3.40 (best price) | 2.20 (best price) | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.15 | — | — |
| Casumo | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.14 | 2.12 | 1.64 |
| Coral | 3.40 | 3.40 (best price) | 2.15 | — | — |
| Everygame | 3.45 | 3.30 | 2.20 (best price) | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.14 | 2.15 (best price) | 1.66 |
| GTbets | 3.35 | 3.37 | 2.20 (best price) | 2.06 | 1.74 (best price) |
| Ladbrokes | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.10 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.14 | 2.12 | 1.64 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.14 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.14 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 3.40 | 3.18 | 2.16 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 3.42 | 3.24 | 2.09 | 2.04 | 1.69 |
| Paddy Power | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.15 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 3.39 | 3.24 | 2.16 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.14 | 2.04 | 1.57 |
| Sky Bet | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.15 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.12 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.14 | 2.12 | 1.64 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.14 | 2.12 | 1.64 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.08 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.14 | — | — |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 1.67 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.15 | 3.10 | 1.98 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.00 | 3.00 | 1.92 | — | — |
Analysis
Group K top-spot decider — model rates it a near coin-flip with a faint Portugal lean and no clear edge.
Group K, matchday 3 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Two of the group’s strongest sides meet to settle top spot in a genuinely close matchup.
Colombia (Elo 1761) are the home side and rated only 14 Elo points below Portugal. Possession-based and dangerous through the front line, the model gives them 34% to win.
Portugal (Elo 1775) are fractionally higher-rated and the model’s slight favourite at 39%, with a large chunk of the equity in the draw. This is close to a coin-flip.
Model view. Portugal 34% / 27% / 39% (home/draw/away), xG 1.22–1.33, BTTS 52%, Under 2.5 53%. Near-even with a faint Portugal tilt.
Betting angle. No edge flagged — the market sits on the model. This is an efficient, tight line, so look to the draw and BTTS rather than picking a side.
- Draw at 3.25 — model 27%, fair ~3.70; the value pocket in a coin-flip decider
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 52%, two willing attacks at near-parity
- Under 2.5 at 1.64 — model 53%, fair ~1.89, supported if both play cautiously
Avoid: backing either side as a clear favourite (neither is), Portugal -0.5 at a short price (only 39% to win).
This is a coin-flip top-spot decider with no ML edge — the value is the draw and BTTS. Standings will dictate whether either side plays for a point; check qualification math and lineups before betting.
Verify before betting
- Group K standings — this likely decides the group winner
- Whether either side is already through and may rotate
- Colombia's possession game vs Portugal's quality in transition
- Miami Gardens heat and both sides' lineup intentions
Team news
Colombia · PortugalBets on this match
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