Model vs market
our call = 60% model + 40% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | DR Congo | Draw | Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 42.5% | 29.2% | 28.3% |
| Market (de-vig) | 41.4% | 28.8% | 29.8% |
| Our call | 42.0% | 29.0% | 28.9% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from DR Congo's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | DR Congo | Push | Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.5% | — | 79.5% |
| -1 | 20.5% | 21.9% | 57.5% |
| -0.5 | 42.5% | — | 57.5% |
| 0 | 42.5% | 29.2% | 28.3% |
| +0.5 | 71.7% | — | 28.3% |
| +1 | 71.7% | 17.0% | 11.3% |
| +1.5 | 88.7% | — | 11.3% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.3% | 28.7% |
| 2.5 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| 3.5 | 23.1% | 76.9% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| DR Congo or Draw | 71.7% |
| Draw or Uzbekistan | 57.5% |
| DR Congo or Uzbekistan (no draw) | 70.8% |
| DNB — DR Congo | 60.0% |
| DNB — Uzbekistan | 40.0% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.9% |
| 1–0 | 10.8% |
| 0–0 | 9.8% |
| 2–1 | 8.8% |
| 0–1 | 8.2% |
| 2–0 | 8.1% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 28 books · as ofAll 28 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | DR Congo | Draw | Uzbekistan | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.40 (best price) | 3.40 (best price) | 3.30 (best price) | 2.28 (best price) | 1.65 (best price) |
| 888sport | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.23 | 3.18 | 3.03 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.38 | 3.20 | 3.10 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.36 | 3.25 | 3.30 (best price) | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.23 | 1.57 |
| Coral | 2.40 (best price) | 3.20 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 2.30 | 3.40 (best price) | 3.15 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.28 (best price) | 1.57 |
| GTbets | 2.36 | 3.28 | 3.06 | 2.22 | 1.65 (best price) |
| Ladbrokes | 2.40 (best price) | 3.20 | 3.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.23 | 1.57 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.10 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 2.28 | 3.24 | 3.08 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.04 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 2.26 | 3.32 | 3.09 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.15 | 1.51 |
| Sky Bet | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 2.02 | 2.92 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.23 | 1.57 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.23 | 1.57 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.05 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.10 | — | — |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.25 | 1.60 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.15 | 3.10 | 2.80 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.05 | 2.95 | 2.70 | — | — |
Analysis
A close Group K finale — model edges Uzbekistan and flags clear value on the away win.
Group K, matchday 3 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. With Colombia and Portugal expected to contest the top spots, this is effectively a fight for the runner-up and best-third lanes between two evenly-matched sides.
DR Congo (Elo 1671) are the home side but rated 32 Elo points below Uzbekistan — athletic and physical, but the model only gives them 31% to win.
Uzbekistan (Elo 1703) are the higher-rated side — organised, disciplined, and a hard out who qualified by beating real Asian contenders. The model makes them the favourite at 43%, well above the 3.10 price.
Model view. Uzbekistan 31% / 26% / 43% (home/draw/away), xG 1.15–1.40, BTTS 51%, Under 2.5 53%. Uzbekistan-leaning.
Betting angle. The data flags Uzbekistan as the edge: 3.10 implies 32% but the model gives 43% — a 10.5% edge. The market is over-weighting DR Congo’s home tag.
- Uzbekistan ML at 3.10 — model 43%, fair ~2.33; the flagged value
- Draw at 3.20 — model 26%, fair ~3.85, live and underpriced
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 51%, two willing attacks
Avoid: DR Congo -0.5 at the home price (only 31% to win), over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
The model makes Uzbekistan the away favourite and flags them at 3.10 as the value in a runner-up play-in. Confirm both sides’ qualification scenarios — a side needing only a draw will approach it differently.
Verify before betting
- Group K standings — likely a play-in for the runner-up spot
- DR Congo's athletic, physical approach at home
- Uzbekistan's organised, disciplined structure
- Atlanta roof environment and any rotation
Team news
DR Congo · UzbekistanNo recent news mentioning DR Congo or Uzbekistan.
Bets on this match
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