Model vs market
our call = 59% model + 41% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | England | Draw | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 57.1% | 25.5% | 17.5% |
| Market (de-vig) | 56.0% | 24.9% | 19.1% |
| Our call | 56.6% | 25.2% | 18.1% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from England's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | England | Push | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32.7% | — | 67.3% |
| -1 | 32.7% | 24.4% | 42.9% |
| -0.5 | 57.1% | — | 42.9% |
| 0 | 57.1% | 25.5% | 17.5% |
| +0.5 | 82.5% | — | 17.5% |
| +1 | 82.5% | 11.6% | 5.8% |
| +1.5 | 94.2% | — | 5.8% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| 2.5 | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 3.5 | 26.3% | 73.7% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| England or Draw | 82.5% |
| Draw or Croatia | 42.9% |
| England or Croatia (no draw) | 74.5% |
| DNB — England | 76.6% |
| DNB — Croatia | 23.4% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.1% |
| 1–0 | 12.0% |
| 2–0 | 11.2% |
| 2–1 | 9.7% |
| 0–0 | 8.4% |
| 3–0 | 6.5% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 34 books · as ofAll 34 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | England | Draw | Croatia | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.78 (best price) | 3.95 (best price) | 5.25 (best price) | 2.12 (best price) | 1.78 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.78 (best price) | 3.85 | 4.82 | 2.12 (best price) | 1.74 |
| 888sport | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.60 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.71 | 3.80 | 4.80 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.68 | 3.65 | 4.75 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.78 (best price) | 3.95 (best price) | 5.20 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.78 (best price) | 3.95 (best price) | 5.20 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.73 | 3.60 | 5.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.72 | 3.87 | 5.08 | 2.08 | 1.78 (best price) |
| Betway | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.33 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.75 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.76 | 3.65 | 4.75 | 1.97 | 1.73 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.74 | 3.75 | 4.80 | 2.02 | 1.68 |
| Coolbet | 1.75 | 3.75 | 5.25 (best price) | 2.05 | 1.78 (best price) |
| Coral | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.80 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.73 | 3.85 | 4.75 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.74 | 3.60 | 4.60 | 2.02 | 1.76 |
| GTbets | 1.71 | 3.88 | 4.81 | 2.03 | 1.76 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.80 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.76 | 3.65 | 4.75 | 1.97 | 1.73 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.76 | 3.65 | 4.75 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.76 | 3.85 | 4.90 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.70 | 2.04 | 1.69 |
| Paddy Power | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.75 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 3.90 | 4.90 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.76 | 3.65 | 4.75 | 1.91 | 1.67 |
| Sky Bet | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.80 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.77 | 3.90 | 5.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.85 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.78 (best price) | 3.75 | 4.90 | 1.97 | 1.73 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.77 | 3.70 | 4.80 | 1.97 | 1.73 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.75 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.60 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.68 | 3.75 | 4.40 | — | — |
Analysis
Group L's marquee opener. The model is roughly fair; the market will overrate England.
Group L opener at AT&T Stadium. Two semi-finalists from the past two World Cups, both in different phases of cycle transition.
England are post-Southgate. The squad has been the most-talented in their generation (Bellingham, Saka, Kane, Foden) but never quite cohered tactically at tournament football. The Elo (1782) reflects roughly where they should be — top-8 in the field, capable of winning the tournament, more likely to lose a quarter-final to Spain or France. New manager, new identity TBD.
Croatia are in twilight. The Modrić-Brozović-Kovačić midfield trio that defined two World Cup runs (2018 final, 2022 third place) is mostly aged out, with Modrić still around at 40 but no longer the engine. The squad has talent but it’s a generation-handover roster. Elo (1695) reflects the decline.
Model view. England 54% / 25% / 21%, xG 1.62–0.93, BTTS 48%. England favoured but tighter than the public will price.
Betting angle. England ML will sit around 1.65–1.75. Model fair is ~1.85. Slight value but not screaming. The market will be efficient on the headline.
- Draw at 3.40+ — model 25%, fair ~4.00, often value when public anchors on the big name
- Croatia +0.5 AH at 1.85+ — combined Croatia-win + draw = 46%, fair ~2.17
- Under 2.5 at 1.85+ — England matches finish under 2.5 about 55% of the time in tournament play
Avoid: England -1.5 AH (only ~30%), Bellingham anytime under 2.50.
This is a market-fade spot on England, not a Croatia-follow spot. The model says England wins but not by enough to justify the short ML the market will offer.
Verify before betting
- England's manager XI choices — there has been wholesale change since Southgate
- Bellingham role — 10 or shifted central
- Croatia's central midfield — Modrić at 40, who is the heir?
- Dallas heat and the closed-roof stadium environment
Team news
England · CroatiaBets on this match
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