Model vs market
our call = 59% model + 41% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | England | Draw | Ghana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 83.2% | 13.1% | 3.7% |
| Market (de-vig) | 82.1% | 12.6% | 5.3% |
| Our call | 82.8% | 12.9% | 4.4% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from England's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | England | Push | Ghana |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 62.5% | — | 37.5% |
| -1 | 62.5% | 20.8% | 16.8% |
| -0.5 | 83.2% | — | 16.8% |
| 0 | 83.2% | 13.1% | 3.7% |
| +0.5 | 96.3% | — | 3.7% |
| +1 | 96.3% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| +1.5 | 99.3% | — | 0.7% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.4% | 19.6% |
| 2.5 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| 3.5 | 35.0% | 65.0% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| England or Draw | 96.3% |
| Draw or Ghana | 16.8% |
| England or Ghana (no draw) | 87.0% |
| DNB — England | 95.7% |
| DNB — Ghana | 4.3% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 16.6% |
| 3–0 | 14.2% |
| 1–0 | 12.4% |
| 4–0 | 9.2% |
| 2–1 | 7.0% |
| 3–1 | 6.0% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | England | Draw | Ghana | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.25 (best price) | 7.50 (best price) | 18.00 (best price) | 1.70 (best price) | 2.40 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.23 | 6.90 | 17.00 | 1.65 | 2.33 |
| 888sport | 1.20 | 6.00 | 13.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.18 | 6.50 | 15.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.22 | 7.00 | 13.50 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.20 | 7.00 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.23 | 7.20 | 17.50 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.23 | 7.20 | 17.50 | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.17 | 5.00 | 13.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.22 | 6.00 | 15.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.22 | 7.00 | 13.50 | 1.69 | 2.28 |
| Betsson | 1.23 | 5.95 | 17.50 | 1.70 (best price) | 2.18 |
| Betway | 1.22 | 6.50 | 12.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.20 | 6.00 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.18 | 7.00 | 17.00 | 1.56 | 2.35 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.21 | 6.60 | 14.00 | 1.59 | 2.17 |
| Coolbet | 1.23 | 7.00 | 15.50 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.22 | 6.50 | 12.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.22 | 6.50 | 13.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.19 | 6.50 | 15.00 | 1.56 | 2.35 |
| GTbets | 1.25 (best price) | 6.52 | 13.72 | 1.64 | 2.21 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.22 | 6.50 | 12.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.18 | 7.00 | 17.00 | 1.56 | 2.35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.18 | 7.00 | 17.00 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.16 | 6.75 | 16.00 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.23 | 7.40 | 17.50 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.20 | 6.50 | 13.75 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.21 | 6.50 | 16.50 | 1.65 | 2.28 |
| Paddy Power | 1.18 | 6.50 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.22 | 6.79 | 14.32 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.16 | 6.75 | 16.00 | 1.54 | 2.30 |
| Sky Bet | 1.18 | 7.00 | 14.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.23 | 7.20 | 17.01 | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.18 | 7.00 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.20 | 7.00 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.19 | 7.50 (best price) | 18.00 (best price) | 1.56 | 2.35 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.19 | 7.50 (best price) | 18.00 (best price) | 1.57 | 2.40 (best price) |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.20 | 6.50 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.16 | 6.75 | 16.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 6.50 | 13.00 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.20 | 7.00 | 12.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.19 | 6.75 | 12.00 | — | — |
Analysis
England are heavy favourites — small edges on the win and the under, but no value in chasing a blowout.
Group L, matchday 2 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. England are the clear group favourite and a win here would put them firmly in control; Ghana, the lowest-rated traditional power in the field, are fighting to stay in the picture.
England (Elo 1782) are the highest-rated side in the group — talented and deep, even amid a managerial transition. The xG line of 2.25–0.30 reflects expected control, and the model gives them 82% to win.
Ghana (Elo 1539) are 243 Elo points back — a side in long transition with a defence that has leaked in qualifying. The model gives them just 4% to win and a 23% BTTS.
Model view. England 82% / 14% / 4%, xG 2.25–0.30, BTTS 23%, Under 2.5 53%. Heavily England.
Model vs market. The data flags two small edges — England to win and the under. England at 1.33 implies 75% but the model gives 82% (a 7.0% edge); the under at 2.12 implies 47% but the model gives 53% (a 5.9% edge).
- England ML at 1.33 — model 82%, fair ~1.22; a small but genuine edge
- Under 2.5 at 2.12 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; a control job over a deep Ghana keeps the total down
- BTTS no ~1.7 — model 77% no, Ghana likely shut out
Avoid: Ghana ML (4%), England -2.5 chasing a blowout the under contradicts, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
England win this comfortably with small edges on both the ML and the under. The two flagged edges slightly conflict in spirit — a clean 2–0 satisfies both; confirm England aren’t rotating before stacking the favourite.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- England's matchday-1 result — a win here likely seals top spot
- Ghana's leaky back line — the recurring weak point
- England's lineup under the post-Southgate regime
- Foxborough conditions and any rotation