Model vs market
our call = 42% model + 58% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | England | Draw | Ghana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 84.7% | 12.2% | 3.2% |
| Market (de-vig) | 73.5% | 17.2% | 9.3% |
| Our call | 78.2% | 15.1% | 6.7% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from England's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | England | Push | Ghana |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 64.5% | — | 35.5% |
| -1 | 64.5% | 20.2% | 15.3% |
| -0.5 | 84.7% | — | 15.3% |
| 0 | 84.7% | 12.2% | 3.2% |
| +0.5 | 96.8% | — | 3.2% |
| +1 | 96.8% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| +1.5 | 99.4% | — | 0.6% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.8% | 19.2% |
| 2.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 3.5 | 35.7% | 64.3% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| England or Draw | 96.8% |
| Draw or Ghana | 15.3% |
| England or Ghana (no draw) | 87.8% |
| DNB — England | 96.4% |
| DNB — Ghana | 3.6% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 16.9% |
| 3–0 | 14.8% |
| 1–0 | 12.4% |
| 4–0 | 9.8% |
| 2–1 | 6.6% |
| 3–1 | 5.8% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 29 books · as ofAll 29 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | England | Draw | Ghana | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.37 (best price) | 5.60 (best price) | 10.50 (best price) | 1.69 (best price) | 2.30 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.30 | 4.80 | 9.50 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.28 | 5.10 | 8.75 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.35 | 5.60 (best price) | 9.60 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.35 | 5.60 (best price) | 9.60 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.33 | 5.00 | 9.50 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.34 | 5.50 | 9.50 | 1.67 | 2.30 (best price) |
| BoyleSports | 1.30 | 4.75 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.34 | 5.10 | 9.00 | 1.65 | 2.12 |
| Coral | 1.33 | 5.25 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.30 | 5.50 | 9.50 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.33 | 4.90 | 9.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 |
| GTbets | 1.32 | 5.21 | 9.54 | 1.69 (best price) | 2.13 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.33 | 5.25 | 9.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.34 | 5.10 | 9.00 | 1.65 | 2.12 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.34 | 5.10 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.28 | 5.15 | 10.50 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.29 | 5.20 | 8.90 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 1.30 | 5.00 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.29 | 5.31 | 8.89 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.34 | 5.10 | 9.00 | 1.57 | 2.04 |
| Sky Bet | 1.33 | 5.00 | 8.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.37 (best price) | 5.30 | 9.80 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.28 | 5.40 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.35 | 5.20 | 9.50 | 1.65 | 2.12 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.35 | 5.20 | 9.50 | 1.65 | 2.12 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.29 | 5.00 | 9.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 4.80 | 9.50 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.26 | 5.10 | 7.75 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.25 | 4.90 | 7.50 | — | — |
Analysis
England are heavy favourites — small edges on the win and the under, but no value in chasing a blowout.
Group L, matchday 2 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. England are the clear group favourite and a win here would put them firmly in control; Ghana, the lowest-rated traditional power in the field, are fighting to stay in the picture.
England (Elo 1782) are the highest-rated side in the group — talented and deep, even amid a managerial transition. The xG line of 2.25–0.30 reflects expected control, and the model gives them 82% to win.
Ghana (Elo 1539) are 243 Elo points back — a side in long transition with a defence that has leaked in qualifying. The model gives them just 4% to win and a 23% BTTS.
Model view. England 82% / 14% / 4%, xG 2.25–0.30, BTTS 23%, Under 2.5 53%. Heavily England.
Betting angle. The data flags two small edges — England to win and the under. England at 1.33 implies 75% but the model gives 82% (a 7.0% edge); the under at 2.12 implies 47% but the model gives 53% (a 5.9% edge).
- England ML at 1.33 — model 82%, fair ~1.22; a small but genuine edge
- Under 2.5 at 2.12 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; a control job over a deep Ghana keeps the total down
- BTTS no ~1.7 — model 77% no, Ghana likely shut out
Avoid: Ghana ML (4%), England -2.5 chasing a blowout the under contradicts, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
England win this comfortably with small edges on both the ML and the under. The two flagged edges slightly conflict in spirit — a clean 2–0 satisfies both; confirm England aren’t rotating before stacking the favourite.
Verify before betting
- England's matchday-1 result — a win here likely seals top spot
- Ghana's leaky back line — the recurring weak point
- England's lineup under the post-Southgate regime
- Foxborough conditions and any rotation
Team news
England · GhanaBets on this match
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