Model vs market
our call = 32% model + 68% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Panama | Draw | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 23.0% | 27.8% | 49.2% |
| Market (de-vig) | 13.1% | 22.0% | 64.9% |
| Our call | 16.3% | 23.8% | 59.8% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Panama's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Panama | Push | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8.5% | — | 91.5% |
| -1 | 8.5% | 14.5% | 77.0% |
| -0.5 | 23.0% | — | 77.0% |
| 0 | 23.0% | 27.8% | 49.2% |
| +0.5 | 50.8% | — | 49.2% |
| +1 | 50.8% | 23.4% | 25.9% |
| +1.5 | 74.1% | — | 25.9% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| 2.5 | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| 3.5 | 24.6% | 75.4% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Panama or Draw | 50.8% |
| Draw or Croatia | 77.0% |
| Panama or Croatia (no draw) | 72.3% |
| DNB — Panama | 31.9% |
| DNB — Croatia | 68.1% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.2% |
| 0–1 | 11.3% |
| 0–2 | 9.5% |
| 1–2 | 9.3% |
| 0–0 | 9.1% |
| 1–0 | 6.8% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Panama | Draw | Croatia | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 7.50 (best price) | 4.35 (best price) | 1.58 (best price) | 1.95 (best price) | 2.12 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 7.29 | 4.21 | 1.56 | 1.86 | 2.01 |
| 888sport | 6.00 | 3.80 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 6.50 | 4.05 | 1.53 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 6.75 | 4.15 | 1.51 | — | — |
| Betfair | 7.20 | 4.30 | 1.56 | — | — |
| Betfair | 7.20 | 4.30 | 1.56 | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 6.00 | 3.40 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 6.90 | 4.05 | 1.56 | 1.82 | 2.06 |
| Betsson | 6.70 | 3.90 | 1.58 (best price) | 1.95 (best price) | 1.88 |
| Betway | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.50 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.49 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
| Codere (IT) | 6.40 | 4.30 | 1.51 | 1.77 | 1.91 |
| Coolbet | 7.00 | 4.30 | 1.55 | 1.84 | 2.03 |
| Coral | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.53 | — | — |
| Everygame | 6.50 | 4.10 | 1.53 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 7.00 | 4.10 | 1.48 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
| GTbets | 6.64 | 3.98 | 1.52 | 1.83 | 1.95 |
| Ladbrokes | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.53 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.49 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.49 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 6.75 | 4.10 | 1.47 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 7.20 | 4.30 | 1.56 | 1.87 | 2.12 (best price) |
| MyBookie.ag | 6.30 | 4.20 | 1.51 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
| Nordic Bet | 7.00 | 4.10 | 1.55 | 1.85 | 1.98 |
| Paddy Power | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 6.73 | 4.16 | 1.54 | 1.86 | 2.03 |
| PMU (FR) | 6.75 | 4.10 | 1.47 | 1.78 | 1.89 |
| Sky Bet | 6.25 | 4.00 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 7.20 | 4.30 | 1.56 | — | — |
| Tipico | 7.00 | 4.10 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 7.50 (best price) | 4.30 | 1.50 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
| Unibet (SE) | 7.50 (best price) | 4.30 | 1.50 | 1.85 | 1.97 |
| Unibet (UK) | 6.50 | 4.35 (best price) | 1.50 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 6.75 | 4.10 | 1.47 | — | — |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 3.80 | 1.50 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| Winamax (DE) | 6.25 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
Analysis
A near-even Group L clash the market frames as Croatia-heavy — the model loves Panama's home price.
Group L, matchday 2 at BMO Field in Toronto. With England the clear group favourite, this is a heavyweight battle for the runner-up spot — and the model sees it as far closer than the market.
Panama (Elo 1663) are the home side and a quietly-risen CONCACAF outfit — organised, physical, and a hard out. The model rates them just 32 Elo points below Croatia and gives them 31% to win.
Croatia (Elo 1695) are the marquee name and favourites at 1.50, but in twilight: the Modrić-era midfield has largely aged out. The model gives them 43% to win, well below the price’s implied ~67%.
Model view. Croatia 31% / 26% / 43% (home/draw/away), xG 1.15–1.40, BTTS 51%, Under 2.5 53%. Croatia-leaning but live for both other results.
Model vs market. The data flags Panama as the edge: 7.00 implies 14% but the model gives 31% — a 16.4% edge, driven by the market over-weighting Croatia’s name and under-rating a strong home side.
- Panama ML at 7.00 — model 31%, fair ~3.23; the headline value as the underrated home dog
- Draw at 4.05 — model 26%, fair ~3.85, roughly fair and live
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 51%, two willing attacks
Avoid: Croatia -0.5 at the short price (only 43% to win), backing Croatia heavily on reputation.
The market has Croatia at 67% implied against an ageing midfield; the model says 43% and flags Panama at 7.00 as big value. This is a name-fade on a declining Croatia — confirm both lineups before backing the home dog.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — this likely shapes the runner-up race behind England
- Croatia's ageing midfield — Modrić at 40, the heir question
- Panama's organised, physical CONCACAF pedigree
- Toronto turf surface and any rotation
Team news
Panama · CroatiaNo recent news mentioning Panama or Croatia.