Model vs market
our call = 45% model + 55% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Panama | Draw | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 18.9% | 26.0% | 55.1% |
| Market (de-vig) | 12.6% | 22.5% | 64.9% |
| Our call | 15.4% | 24.1% | 60.5% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Panama's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Panama | Push | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6.5% | — | 93.5% |
| -1 | 6.5% | 12.3% | 81.1% |
| -0.5 | 18.9% | — | 81.1% |
| 0 | 18.9% | 26.0% | 55.1% |
| +0.5 | 44.9% | — | 55.1% |
| +1 | 44.9% | 24.1% | 31.0% |
| +1.5 | 69.0% | — | 31.0% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| 2.5 | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 3.5 | 26.2% | 73.8% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Panama or Draw | 44.9% |
| Draw or Croatia | 81.1% |
| Panama or Croatia (no draw) | 74.0% |
| DNB — Panama | 25.5% |
| DNB — Croatia | 74.5% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.4% |
| 0–1 | 11.7% |
| 0–2 | 10.7% |
| 1–2 | 9.6% |
| 0–0 | 8.5% |
| 0–3 | 6.0% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 29 books · as ofAll 29 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Panama | Draw | Croatia | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 7.80 (best price) | 4.40 (best price) | 1.53 (best price) | 2.03 (best price) | 1.85 (best price) |
| 888sport | 7.00 | 3.75 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 6.60 | 4.05 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Betfair | 7.40 | 4.30 | 1.51 | — | — |
| Betfair | 7.40 | 4.30 | 1.51 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 7.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 7.50 | 4.15 | 1.51 | 2.03 (best price) | 1.81 |
| BoyleSports | 7.50 | 3.80 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Casumo | 6.75 | 4.10 | 1.51 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
| Coral | 7.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 7.00 | 4.00 | 1.53 (best price) | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.50 | 1.89 | 1.85 (best price) |
| GTbets | 7.01 | 3.98 | 1.52 | 1.99 | 1.79 |
| Ladbrokes | 7.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 6.75 | 4.10 | 1.51 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 6.75 | 4.10 | 1.51 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 7.80 (best price) | 3.94 | 1.45 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 6.60 | 4.10 | 1.46 | 1.94 | 1.77 |
| Paddy Power | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 6.84 | 3.86 | 1.49 | 1.99 | 1.81 |
| PMU (FR) | 6.75 | 4.10 | 1.51 | 1.80 | 1.76 |
| Sky Bet | 6.25 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 7.60 | 4.40 (best price) | 1.51 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 6.80 | 4.20 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.53 (best price) | 1.87 | 1.83 |
| Unibet (SE) | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.51 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
| Unibet (UK) | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.45 | — | — |
| William Hill | 7.00 | 3.75 | 1.44 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
| Winamax (DE) | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.43 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 5.80 | 3.95 | 1.41 | — | — |
Analysis
A near-even Group L clash the market frames as Croatia-heavy — the model loves Panama's home price.
Group L, matchday 2 at BMO Field in Toronto. With England the clear group favourite, this is a heavyweight battle for the runner-up spot — and the model sees it as far closer than the market.
Panama (Elo 1663) are the home side and a quietly-risen CONCACAF outfit — organised, physical, and a hard out. The model rates them just 32 Elo points below Croatia and gives them 31% to win.
Croatia (Elo 1695) are the marquee name and favourites at 1.50, but in twilight: the Modrić-era midfield has largely aged out. The model gives them 43% to win, well below the price’s implied ~67%.
Model view. Croatia 31% / 26% / 43% (home/draw/away), xG 1.15–1.40, BTTS 51%, Under 2.5 53%. Croatia-leaning but live for both other results.
Betting angle. The data flags Panama as the edge: 7.00 implies 14% but the model gives 31% — a 16.4% edge, driven by the market over-weighting Croatia’s name and under-rating a strong home side.
- Panama ML at 7.00 — model 31%, fair ~3.23; the headline value as the underrated home dog
- Draw at 4.05 — model 26%, fair ~3.85, roughly fair and live
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 51%, two willing attacks
Avoid: Croatia -0.5 at the short price (only 43% to win), backing Croatia heavily on reputation.
The market has Croatia at 67% implied against an ageing midfield; the model says 43% and flags Panama at 7.00 as big value. This is a name-fade on a declining Croatia — confirm both lineups before backing the home dog.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — this likely shapes the runner-up race behind England
- Croatia's ageing midfield — Modrić at 40, the heir question
- Panama's organised, physical CONCACAF pedigree
- Toronto turf surface and any rotation
Team news
Panama · CroatiaBets on this match
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