Model vs market
our call = 58% model + 42% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Panama | Draw | England |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 7.4% | 17.9% | 74.7% |
| Market (de-vig) | 9.7% | 14.5% | 75.8% |
| Our call | 8.4% | 16.4% | 75.1% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Panama's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Panama | Push | England |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1.8% | — | 98.2% |
| -1 | 1.8% | 5.6% | 92.6% |
| -0.5 | 7.4% | — | 92.6% |
| 0 | 7.4% | 17.9% | 74.7% |
| +0.5 | 25.3% | — | 74.7% |
| +1 | 25.3% | 23.4% | 51.3% |
| +1.5 | 48.7% | — | 51.3% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.2% | 21.8% |
| 2.5 | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| 3.5 | 31.7% | 68.3% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Panama or Draw | 25.3% |
| Draw or England | 92.6% |
| Panama or England (no draw) | 82.1% |
| DNB — Panama | 9.1% |
| DNB — England | 90.9% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 0–2 | 14.8% |
| 0–1 | 12.5% |
| 0–3 | 11.1% |
| 1–2 | 8.7% |
| 1–1 | 8.4% |
| 1–3 | 6.5% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 27 books · as ofAll 27 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Panama | Draw | England | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 10.00 (best price) | 6.50 (best price) | 1.32 (best price) | 1.68 (best price) | 2.20 (best price) |
| 888sport | 8.50 | 5.50 | 1.25 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 8.50 | 5.40 | 1.27 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 10.00 (best price) | 5.50 | 1.29 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 9.00 | 5.90 | 1.32 (best price) | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 10.00 (best price) | 5.00 | 1.25 | — | — |
| Casumo | 7.50 | 6.00 | 1.30 | — | — |
| Coral | 9.50 | 5.75 | 1.30 | — | — |
| Everygame | 7.50 | 6.50 (best price) | 1.30 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 7.50 | 6.00 | 1.30 | — | — |
| GTbets | 8.97 | 5.87 | 1.32 (best price) | 1.68 (best price) | 2.19 |
| Ladbrokes | 9.50 | 5.75 | 1.28 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 7.50 | 6.00 | 1.30 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 7.50 | 6.00 | 1.30 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 7.50 | 6.00 | 1.30 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 9.60 | 5.95 | 1.25 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 8.40 | 5.40 | 1.29 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 10.00 (best price) | 5.50 | 1.25 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 7.24 | 6.19 | 1.29 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 9.00 | 6.00 | 1.25 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 10.00 (best price) | 6.20 | 1.28 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 7.50 | 6.00 | 1.30 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 7.50 | 6.00 | 1.30 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 9.00 | 5.25 | 1.29 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 7.50 | 6.00 | 1.30 | — | — |
| William Hill | 8.50 | 5.50 | 1.25 | 1.62 | 2.20 (best price) |
| Winamax (DE) | 7.00 | 5.10 | 1.24 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 6.50 | 4.70 | 1.22 | — | — |
Analysis
England should win the Group L finale comfortably — the value is on the under and the live draw.
Group L, matchday 3 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. England are the clear class side and should control this; Panama, at home, may need a result to advance.
Panama (Elo 1663) are organised and physical but rated 119 Elo points below England. The model gives them just 17% to win; a deep block and set-piece hopes are their best route to anything.
England (Elo 1782) are the highest-rated side in the group and favoured at 1.29. The xG line of 1.75 in their favour and a 60% win probability reflect control — though the model’s number sits below the price’s implied ~78%.
Model view. England 17% / 23% / 60% (home/draw/away), xG 0.80–1.75, BTTS 45%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly England.
Betting angle. The data flags two edges — the under and the draw. Under 2.5 at 2.20 implies 45% but the model gives 53% (a 7.7% edge); the draw at 5.90 implies 17% but the model gives 23% (a 6.2% edge).
- Under 2.5 at 2.20 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; a control job over a deep Panama keeps the total down
- Draw at 5.90 — model 23%, fair ~4.35; live, especially if England rotate having qualified
- England -0.5 AH = the straight win, 60%, fair ~1.67
Avoid: England ML at 1.29 (no flagged edge — fairly priced), England -1.5 chasing a margin, Panama ML at the home price (only 17%).
England win this comfortably but the flagged value is the under and the live draw, not the cramped ML. If England are already through and rotate, the draw at 5.90 becomes genuinely attractive — check the lineup.
Verify before betting
- Group L standings — England may already be through and rotating
- Panama's qualification scenario — a must-win could force them open
- England's lineup intentions under the post-Southgate regime
- East Rutherford conditions for the goal-total read
Team news
Panama · EnglandBets on this match
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