Model vs market
our call = 52% model + 48% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Croatia | Draw | Ghana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 66.5% | 21.7% | 11.8% |
| Market (de-vig) | 59.9% | 24.6% | 15.5% |
| Our call | 63.4% | 23.1% | 13.5% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Croatia's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Croatia | Push | Ghana |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42.2% | — | 57.8% |
| -1 | 42.2% | 24.3% | 33.5% |
| -0.5 | 66.5% | — | 33.5% |
| 0 | 66.5% | 21.7% | 11.8% |
| +0.5 | 88.2% | — | 11.8% |
| +1 | 88.2% | 8.3% | 3.5% |
| +1.5 | 96.5% | — | 3.5% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.7% | 23.3% |
| 2.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 3.5 | 29.5% | 70.5% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Croatia or Draw | 88.2% |
| Draw or Ghana | 33.5% |
| Croatia or Ghana (no draw) | 78.3% |
| DNB — Croatia | 85.0% |
| DNB — Ghana | 15.0% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 13.0% |
| 1–0 | 12.2% |
| 1–1 | 10.3% |
| 2–1 | 9.5% |
| 3–0 | 8.7% |
| 0–0 | 7.3% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 35 books · as ofAll 35 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Croatia | Draw | Ghana | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.70 (best price) | 4.05 (best price) | 6.20 (best price) | 2.16 (best price) | 1.83 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 4.03 | 6.10 | 2.10 | 1.79 |
| 888sport | 1.60 | 3.60 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.56 | 4.05 (best price) | 6.10 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.70 (best price) | 3.85 | 6.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.70 (best price) | 3.85 | 6.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.50 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.61 | 3.95 | 6.18 | 2.04 | 1.83 (best price) |
| Betway | 1.57 | 3.80 | 5.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.60 | 3.60 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.64 | 3.75 | 6.10 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
| Coolbet | 1.67 | 3.85 | 5.75 | 2.08 | 1.76 |
| Coral | 1.60 | 3.80 | 5.75 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.75 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.62 | 3.65 | 5.80 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
| GTbets | 1.65 | 3.92 | 5.93 | 2.08 | 1.73 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.60 | 3.80 | 5.75 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.64 | 3.75 | 6.10 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.64 | 3.75 | 6.10 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.61 | 3.60 | 5.75 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.70 (best price) | 3.85 | 6.20 (best price) | 2.16 (best price) | 1.79 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.58 | 3.90 | 5.80 | 2.00 | 1.72 |
| Paddy Power | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 3.67 | 5.62 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.61 | 3.60 | 5.75 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
| Sky Bet | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.68 | 3.75 | 6.00 | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.60 | 3.80 | 6.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.63 | 3.65 | 6.20 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.64 | 3.75 | 6.10 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.64 | 3.75 | 6.10 | 2.14 | 1.73 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.60 | 3.80 | 6.00 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.61 | 3.60 | 5.75 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.70 | 5.50 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.49 | 3.65 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.46 | 3.45 | 4.70 | — | — |
Analysis
Croatia are clear favourites in the Group L finale — a small edge on the win, with the under in support.
Group L, matchday 3 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. With England expected to top the group, this finale likely decides Croatia’s knockout fate against the group’s lowest-rated side.
Croatia (Elo 1695) are the higher-rated side by 156 Elo points and favourites at 1.64. Even in twilight, the quality gap over Ghana is clear; the xG line of 1.90–0.65 reflects control, and the model gives them 67% to win.
Ghana (Elo 1539) are a side in long transition with a defence that has leaked badly. The model gives them just 12% to win and a 41% BTTS.
Model view. Croatia 67% / 21% / 12%, xG 1.90–0.65, BTTS 41%, Under 2.5 53%. Croatia firmly favoured.
Model vs market. The data flags a modest edge on Croatia: 1.64 implies 61% but the model gives 67% — a 6.2% edge. Real but not large.
- Croatia ML at 1.64 — model 67%, fair ~1.49; the flagged value
- Croatia -0.5 AH = the straight win, 67%, same fair ~1.49
- Under 2.5 at 1.65 — model 53%, fair ~1.89, roughly fair and supported if Croatia control
Avoid: Ghana ML (12%), Croatia -1.5 chasing a margin (under coin-flip), BTTS yes short (model 41%).
Croatia are correctly favoured and the ML carries a small edge at 1.64. Watch for rotation if Croatia’s qualification is already settled or impossible — an ageing side may manage minutes; confirm the lineup.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group L standings — likely decisive for Croatia's runner-up hopes
- Ghana's leaky back line — the recurring weak point
- Croatia's ageing midfield and whether key men are managed
- Philadelphia conditions and any rotation
Team news
Croatia · GhanaNo recent news mentioning Croatia or Ghana.