Model vs market
our call = 44% model + 56% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Croatia | Draw | Ghana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 68.5% | 20.8% | 10.7% |
| Market (de-vig) | 58.5% | 24.9% | 16.6% |
| Our call | 63.0% | 23.1% | 13.9% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Croatia's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Croatia | Push | Ghana |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44.4% | — | 55.6% |
| -1 | 44.4% | 24.1% | 31.4% |
| -0.5 | 68.5% | — | 31.4% |
| 0 | 68.5% | 20.8% | 10.7% |
| +0.5 | 89.3% | — | 10.7% |
| +1 | 89.3% | 7.6% | 3.0% |
| +1.5 | 97.0% | — | 3.0% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| 2.5 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| 3.5 | 30.1% | 69.9% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Croatia or Draw | 89.3% |
| Draw or Ghana | 31.4% |
| Croatia or Ghana (no draw) | 79.2% |
| DNB — Croatia | 86.6% |
| DNB — Ghana | 13.5% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 13.4% |
| 1–0 | 12.2% |
| 1–1 | 9.9% |
| 2–1 | 9.4% |
| 3–0 | 9.3% |
| 0–0 | 7.1% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 27 books · as ofAll 27 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Croatia | Draw | Ghana | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.74 (best price) | 3.90 (best price) | 5.70 (best price) | 2.15 (best price) | 1.73 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.67 | 3.40 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.53 | 3.63 | 5.10 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.69 | 3.70 | 5.70 (best price) | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.60 | 3.75 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.64 | 3.60 | 5.40 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| Coral | 1.73 | 3.60 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.62 | 3.90 (best price) | 5.50 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.64 | 3.60 | 5.40 | 2.15 (best price) | 1.66 |
| GTbets | 1.74 (best price) | 3.72 | 4.95 | 2.08 | 1.73 (best price) |
| Ladbrokes | 1.73 | 3.60 | 5.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.64 | 3.60 | 5.40 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.64 | 3.60 | 5.40 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.64 | 3.60 | 5.40 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.63 | 3.72 | 5.25 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.64 | 3.65 | 5.10 | 2.04 | 1.69 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 3.77 | 5.46 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.64 | 3.60 | 5.40 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.64 | 3.60 | 5.40 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.25 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.64 | 3.60 | 5.40 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.40 | 5.00 | 2.10 | 1.67 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.56 | 3.50 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.52 | 3.35 | 4.30 | — | — |
Analysis
Croatia are clear favourites in the Group L finale — a small edge on the win, with the under in support.
Group L, matchday 3 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. With England expected to top the group, this finale likely decides Croatia’s knockout fate against the group’s lowest-rated side.
Croatia (Elo 1695) are the higher-rated side by 156 Elo points and favourites at 1.64. Even in twilight, the quality gap over Ghana is clear; the xG line of 1.90–0.65 reflects control, and the model gives them 67% to win.
Ghana (Elo 1539) are a side in long transition with a defence that has leaked badly. The model gives them just 12% to win and a 41% BTTS.
Model view. Croatia 67% / 21% / 12%, xG 1.90–0.65, BTTS 41%, Under 2.5 53%. Croatia firmly favoured.
Betting angle. The data flags a modest edge on Croatia: 1.64 implies 61% but the model gives 67% — a 6.2% edge. Real but not large.
- Croatia ML at 1.64 — model 67%, fair ~1.49; the flagged value
- Croatia -0.5 AH = the straight win, 67%, same fair ~1.49
- Under 2.5 at 1.65 — model 53%, fair ~1.89, roughly fair and supported if Croatia control
Avoid: Ghana ML (12%), Croatia -1.5 chasing a margin (under coin-flip), BTTS yes short (model 41%).
Croatia are correctly favoured and the ML carries a small edge at 1.64. Watch for rotation if Croatia’s qualification is already settled or impossible — an ageing side may manage minutes; confirm the lineup.
Verify before betting
- Group L standings — likely decisive for Croatia's runner-up hopes
- Ghana's leaky back line — the recurring weak point
- Croatia's ageing midfield and whether key men are managed
- Philadelphia conditions and any rotation
Team news
Croatia · GhanaBets on this match
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